China is striving for semiconductor self-sufficiency, but a recent analysis suggests that it still cannot overcome the dominance of ASML from the Netherlands in the field of lithography equipment. In particular, China’s cutting-edge extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology is reportedly comparable to ASML’s level in 2004, making it unlikely that China will secure a practical alternative within the next decade.
UBS, Switzerland’s largest investment bank, stated in a report on September 2 (local time), “The current level of China’s technology appears to be similar to that of ASML in 2004.” The report forecasts it will be difficult for China to develop technology equivalent to ASML’s state-of-the-art EUV capabilities over the next 10 years.
ASML is the world’s only producer of advanced EUV lithography equipment, which is essential for manufacturing semiconductors supplied to companies such as Nvidia.
UBS specifically analyzed patent activities related to light sources and lasers, concluding that China’s technology is comparable to where ASML was approximately 15 years before achieving mass production of EUV equipment. UBS noted, “There is still a gap in yield and throughput compared to ASML, and regulatory constraints also exist, so the likelihood of Chinese-made lithography equipment being used in overseas markets remains low.”
UBS also predicted that China may acquire the capability to mass-produce immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography equipment within the next two to five years. Although DUV equipment is technologically less advanced than EUV, it is still essential for semiconductor manufacturing, creating fine and complex circuit patterns on silicon wafers using light. However, UBS added that, due to difficulties in accurately assessing the performance of the equipment and the technological maturity of China’s semiconductor supply chain, uncertainties remain around these projections.
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The Chinese government is investing immense state capital in its semiconductor industry in pursuit of self-sufficiency. However, efforts for technological advancement have been hampered by export restrictions on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment led by the United States.
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