The energy sector certainly has traded with the belief the ceasefire and agreement announced between Iran and the U.S would calm the military conflict between the two nations.
Apparently news of the ‘agreement’ has not fully satisfied the Iranian and U.S militaries, this as both seem to keep finding reasons to strike each other in the Hormuz Strait and surrounding Gulf States. In other words, big oil traders who have been comfortable the past couple of weeks may find themselves tested by the thought of the agreement falling apart quicker than anticipated. Meaning WTI Crude Oil will see volatility tomorrow.
Nervousness and Calm Will be Tested
The ability of WTI Crude Oil to return to under $70.000 late last week was not a surprise. Certainly if Crude Oil is flowing from the Middle East and being shipped peacefully around the globe, thoughts of plentiful supply and content buyers would justify a return to the lower prices of WTI Crude Oil seen before the Iranian war.
However, tomorrow hopes of calm in the Middle East will be confronted by the reality of the political and military situation. This as the U.S and Iran interact either violently or via a more tranquil method. The price of WTI Crude Oil is bound to be combustible early on Monday, and there is a lot of time left today which could and will affect the sentiment of large traders depending on news developments.
Trying to Predict What is Going to Happen
Already this morning reports from the U.S are indicating that President Trump has once again threatened a more intense military clash with Iran, this if the Iranians do not stop striking cargo vessels in the Hormuz Strait and aiming rockets at surrounding nations.
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One could be an optimist, one can be negative, but that still doesn’t mean that you as a trader will know what will happen.
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A realistic approach will include the knowledge that big players have already bet on lower moves, but now that noise from the Middle East appears set to potentially escalate, some bets will be made on a change of sentiment – from calm back to nervous.
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Which would seem to mean that upside should not be a surprise early on Monday.
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However, because of President Trump’s ability to heighten rhetoric quickly, and Iran’s reputation for responding also, sentiment will be tested in a harsh manner.
WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook:
Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 67.050 to 77.000
With the price of WTI Crude Oil having finished last week’s trading with a steady and incremental move lower and returning to values seen in early March, the commodity is now in a position to be tested again with a stern choice facing speculators. Immediate volatility should be expected tomorrow. Retail traders may find the trading waters too rough to venture forth into for the first few hours on Monday. And depending on what happens the remainder of today, going into Monday’s opening will affect sentiment massively.
Large players certainly have the ability to view the military escalation which has broken out the past day as simple noise, but if the situation between Iran and the U.S grows more belligerent in the coming hours this would certainly set off a harsh reaction. Humans tend to be optimistic and look for good things. Yet day traders need to be able to judge the landscape effectively as they try to take advantage of shifting Middle East storms. Speculators should be ready for all possibilities this coming week.
Robert Petrucci is a Market and Geopolitical Analyst at DailyForex with professional experience in the Forex, commodity, and broader financial markets dating back to 1993. His work focuses on risk analysis, macroeconomic themes, and how geopolitical events affect currencies, commodities, stock indices, and cryptocurrencies. Robert brings a conservative wealth management perspective from his long-standing advisory roles, translating complex market conditions into structured scenarios for traders and investors.
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