Guest columnist: China knows America’s critical weakness
Published 10:44 pm Monday, June 1, 2026
President Donald Trump’s visit to China began with a grave warning. Chinese President Xi Jinping told the U.S. delegation that a mishandling of policy with Taiwan could lead to “clashes and even conflicts” with the United States. In diplomatic parlance, it was an unmistakable shot across the bow.
This was a statement from an emboldened Xi, who is increasingly confident in Chinese military power and unconvinced that the U.S. is capable of the deterrence it once projected across the Pacific.
The U.S. war with Iran has exposed alarming vulnerabilities in America’s war-fighting capabilities. Not only has Iran withstood the U.S. aerial onslaught, but the conflict has dangerously drained U.S. munitions stockpiles and put a spotlight on the erosion of the U.S. military industrial base.
Since the war began in late February, the U.S. has used at least 45% of its Precision Strike Missiles and 50% of its missile interceptors. Replacing these munitions will take years — and that assumes U.S. manufacturers can get the key materials needed to produce them. China, unfortunately, dictates the answer.
China’s dominance of global mineral supply chains has given it immense leverage over U.S. defense production. According to The Wall Street Journal, more than 80,000 parts used in America’s weapons systems are manufactured with critical minerals subject to Chinese control.
China has already imposed export quotas and bans on a variety of essential minerals, sending U.S. defense firms scrambling and exposing Chinese-designed chokepoints.
Rebuilding American mineral security is now extraordinarily urgent. In a 2023 report, the Pentagon estimated that a conflict with China would result in shortages of 69 materials needed for weapons production. With U.S. stockpiles of weapons already depleted and Chinese export controls already hampering rearmament, potential shortages could be even more severe.
The Trump administration has launched a robust effort to strengthen U.S. mineral supply chains, including the invocation of the Defense Production Act to increase U.S mineral production, direct investment in mining and processing projects, and an effort to create a minerals trade group outside of China’s control. But the administration’s latest request to combat this glaring vulnerability might be its most important to date.
The Pentagon’s 2027 budget request includes nearly $50 billion to address critical mineral shortfalls and domestic supply chains. Included in this request is $18 billion for the expansion of the National Defense Stockpile — a mineral reserve used for defense applications. These investments aren’t just necessary; they’re long overdue.
The Pentagon’s request marks a major new commitment to mineral supply chain security. But it’s also a return to the policy that made America — not the Soviet Union or China — the world’s mineral superpower of the 20th century.
At the outbreak of the Korean War, Congress authorized $2.9 billion for mineral stockpile purchases — roughly $40 billion today — along with robust support for domestic production of critical metals and minerals. By 1962, during the Kennedy administration, the U.S. minerals stockpile was worth $7.7 billion — more than $80 billion today.
This investment in mineral stockpiling and domestic productive capacity was an essential element of Cold War deterrence. America’s adversaries recognized that the U.S. possessed the supply chains to sustain its arsenal of democracy.
It’s critical that we rebuild this deterrence and confront China’s mineral dominance. President Xi recognizes American mineral and industrial weakness. Now is the moment to prove him wrong. Secure mineral supply chains are essential not only to winning the next conflict, but to preventing one altogether.
John Adams, U.S. Army Brigadier General (retired), is president of Guardian Six Consulting and a former Deputy U.S. Military Representative to NATO’s Military Committee. He can be reached at jadams@guardiansix.com.
