In 2017, sitting in front of a moderator and a live audience made up of America’s governors, Elon Musk made two predictions that, at the time, sounded plausible given the optimism around Tesla and the early stirrings of an EV revolution. Within ten years, he said, more than half of all new vehicles produced in the United States would be electric. And not just electric. He also said that almost all of them would be fully autonomous, with no steering wheel at all. Owning a car with a steering wheel would feel as quaint as keeping a horse.
We are now in 2026, well into the window Musk staked out. It’s a fair moment to look back at what he said, what’s actually unfolded on American roads, and what the gap between the two tells us.
Elon Musk was asked by the moderator what he would expect or want to see for the future of electric vehicles. At time stamp 40 minutes, Mr. Musk replies, “They (EVs) are going to grow exponentially. So, there’s a big difference between five and ten years. My guess is that, probably in ten years (2027), more than half of new vehicle production is electric in the United States. And China is probably going to be ahead of that. China is super pro-EV.”
Let’s break down the progress that has been made on EVs first in America since mid-2017. EV market share was under 1% at that time. The Model 3 was about to enter a protracted, very slow launch period. There were no mainstream volume EV models being sold in America. The Bolt, Nissan Leaf, and Model S were maintaining a monthly rate of roughly 1,000 units. For perspective, mainstream models like the Toyota RAV4 sell in volumes between 20,000 and 40,000 units pr month.
Over the initial five years following Mr. Musk’s prediction, EV market share of new vehicles rose to about 5.5% by the middle of 2022. EVs never grew exponentially during this period. Adding a single percent of market share every year is not what the term exponential describes. People use the term exponential sales to imply “a steeply increasing sales curve.” From 2017 to 2022, the curve was barely a blip off the zero line.
From 2017 until 2024, EVs slowly grew to average about 8% of powertrain market share in the U.S., and this was during a period of full government support for EVs and massive mandates of tens of thousands of dollars of incentives and government tax breaks and such. After 2024, the EV market share in America first levels off, then turns downward, and it is now back to a bit over 5%.
Mr. Musk then points out that China has the most rigorous renewable energy mandates, more than any other nation. He also says that a coalition of Chinese automakers asked the Chinese government to slow down that mandated policy because they were expected to make 8% of vehicles electric by 2018, and as Mr. Musk says, “They can’t physically do it.”
After a bit of second thinking, Mr. Musk doubles down and drops this firmed-up prediction. He said, “In ten years, half of all production will be EV. I think almost ALL cars produced will be autonomous in ten years. It will be rare to find one that is not. That’s going to be a huge transformation.” Later in the discussion, Mr. Musk is asked to clarify that he means no steering wheel. Mr. Musk clarifies that this is precisely what he means and says, “There will not be a steering wheel. In twenty years, having a steering wheel will be like having a horse.”
What Musk got right was that China has indeed emerged as the dominant force in electric vehicle production and adoption. What he got wrong was the speed and the shape of the EV curve in America. The trajectory wasn’t exponential; it was halting, dependent on subsidies, vulnerable to consumer hesitation, and ultimately reversible, as the recent decline in U.S. EV market share has shown.
The steering wheel, for now, is still here. Fully autonomous, no-wheel passenger vehicles are not parking themselves in the average American driveway. That doesn’t mean Musk’s broader vision is wrong. Ten-year predictions in a complex industry tend to underestimate inertia: the inertia of consumer habits, charging infrastructure, manufacturing supply chains, regulation, and the simple physics of building tens of millions of cars a year. Stepping back, Mr. Musk did his part. He and Tesla created two mainstream-volume vehicles that sell well in America and all over the world. If the remaining automakers had done the same, his vision may have come true. If only the pesky customers hadn’t ruined all the fun.
John Goreham is a 14-year veteran of Torque News. An accomplished writer and a long-time expert in vehicle testing, Goreham also serves as the Vice President of the New England Motor Press Association and has a growing social media presence. He’s also a 10-year staff writer and community moderator for Car Talk. Goreham holds a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering and an undergraduate Certificate in Marketing. In addition to vehicle and tire content, he offers deep dives into market trends and opinion pieces. You can follow John Goreham on X and TikTok, and connect with him on LinkedIn.
Top of page graph created by john Goreham using Cox Automotive data.
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