EUR/AUD recovered to 1.6381 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. A short term bottom should be in place, and rise from 1.6108 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.6125. Above 1.6381 will bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 1.6451) and above. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6108 will resume the larger down trend from 1.8554.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7012) holds, even in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6578) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.
