EUR/JPY was bounded in range below 185.44 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Fall from 187.93 should have completed at 182.01. Above 185.44 will extend the rebound from there to retest 187.93. However, firm break of 184.02 support will bring deeper decline back to 182.01.
In the bigger picture, the pullback from 187.93 is steep, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 178.27) will argue that it’s already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long 55 W EMA (now at 178.27) holds.
