Keagan Smith gives his best bet on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s Premier League match between Leeds and Brighton.
Matchweek 37 of the Premier League season is already underway, but the real fun begins on Sunday with all but two games scheduled for today. Brighton & Hove Albion are still in the hunt for European football, and with a positive result against Leeds United, they can come one step closer to achieving that dream.
Brighton are +115 favorites on the Moneyline for this one on DraftKings Sportsbook. A draw is available at +255 odds, while a Leeds win is priced at +220.
Leeds vs. Brighton prediction, pick
We’ll focus on the favorites first here. Brighton sits seventh in the Premier League table with 53 points as European football lies just over the horizon. Much depends on whether Aston Villa can win the Europa League and allow for the No. 6 squad in the Prem to qualify for Champions League, but even if that outcome doesn’t come to pass, the second Europa berth of Brighton’s history remains a distinct possibility — if not a likelihood.
The Seagulls went through a dreadful run of form in the winter months, but they have entirely turned things in the spring. Since Matchweek 28 beginning on February 27, they’ve secured more points than any other club with 19 in nine matches, going 6-1-2 over that span. Their 16 goals rank fourth while conceding the third-fewest with just eight, also dominating possession over this sample at 57.0%. There’s much to like about the way first-year manager Fabian Hurzeler helped to right the ship and correct the poor vibes surrounding the club — so much so that he secured a multiyear contract extension. Veteran striker Danny Welbeck’s 13 goals in Premier League competition are a new career high, while youngster Jack Hinshelwood’s position change to the No. 10 has helped unlock his game with three goals across his last three games.
As for Leeds, what was once a poor season has now seen hope rise from months of struggle. The club is in its first year back in the Premier League and will stick around for at least one more season after escaping the relegation zone, a massive achievement in itself even if the 48 points aren’t the most impressive.
Leeds have notched 11 points over their last five contests with a 3-2-0 record, which includes a win over Manchester United and a draw against Bournemouth. Over these last five weeks, they’ve scored 11 goals while allowing only five, the third and second-best marks in that span. They’ve still been relatively poor on offense this year, but the defense has appeared more sound as of late and there are bright spots. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has 12 goals in 32 Prem appearances while Noah Okafor has six across his last eight games. The team’s play has taken a leap recently but they’ll be tested for sure against this hot Brighton squad.
The Seagulls are certainly a home-heavy side, bringing a 9-6-3 record with a +13 goal differential when playing at the Amex as opposed to a 5-5-8 record and -3 differential on the road. Leeds are one of the worst away clubs in the Premier League at 2-9-7 with a -12 differential in such fixtures, so heading to Sussex by the Sea puts them at a clear disadvantage beyond the usual chasm between these sides.
Even with Leeds’ positive form as of late, Brighton remains much better and is chasing the second European football berth in club history. They’ll need some help from Aston Villa to get into the Champions League, but they should keep rolling over these last couple of matchweeks and maintain a real shot at Europa League as a consolation prize if they can end in strong form. Even despite the absence of the injured Kaoru Mitoma, the Seagulls’ prowess and motivation should allow them to deliver a win.
