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Rivian stock could rise 1,770% by 2032
Earlier this year, I named Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) my top growth stock for 2026. The biggest growth catalyst for Rivian should arrive in the next few months, when deliveries of its new R2 SUV begin.
The Rivian R2 is the company’s first model priced under $50,000. Most Americans want to spend under $50,000 on their next vehicle purchase, and SUVs have become one of the most popular vehicle form factors in recent years. In short, the R2 SUV gives Rivian its first real chance at achieving mass scale.
How big could the R2 become? Tesla‘s (NASDAQ: TSLA) history provides a compelling potential growth runway.
In 2019, Tesla had a market cap of around $75 billion. In 2020, sales of its Model Y crossover began. Today, the Model Y is Tesla’s best-selling product, comprising around 85% of Tesla’s total auto sales. Tesla’s market cap is now around $1.4 trillion — 18.7 times higher than its market cap before Model Y sales began.
If you had invested $1 million in Tesla stock in 2019, that investment would now be worth around $18.7 million today. Could the same be true for Rivian now that R2 sales are set to begin? There’s one factor working in Rivian’s favor that Tesla lacked in 2019: the rise of AI and autonomous vehicles.
Image source: Getty Images.
Earlier this year, Uber Technologies placed a $1.25 billion order for up to 50,000 Rivian R2 SUVs. Uber wants to scale its own robotaxi division, targeting an opportunity that could be worth up to $10 trillion long term.
This is what gets me excited about the sales potential for Rivian’s first affordable model. Tesla, of course, is pursuing its own robotaxi ambitions. But Tesla can produce its own vehicle in-house, whereas many other robotaxi competitors cannot. That means deep-pocketed robotaxi businesses like Uber will be reliant on third-party suppliers like Rivian.
Most automakers, however, have not invested as heavily as Tesla or Rivian in artificial intelligence and autonomous capabilities. AI and autonomy are so important to Rivian that management recently pushed out its profitability timelines to accelerate investment in these technologies.
Rivian has the opportunity to become a key supplier to the robotaxi market, to the point that I wouldn’t be surprised to see Uber or Alphabet — the parent company of robotaxi service Waymo — acquire the company outright. Otherwise, these businesses may be racing for production capacity as Tesla takes market share by controlling its own manufacturing volumes.
Should you buy stock in Rivian Automotive right now?
Before you buy stock in Rivian Automotive, consider this:
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Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Tesla, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
