Arsenal and Manchester City’s fight for the English crown is coming down to a photo-finish.
The 2025–26 Premier League title race might have once looked like a forgone conclusion, but countless twists and turns over the last few months have made for a back-and-forth battle between the two best clubs in England. The Gunners sit in pole position to snag their long-awaited league title, but City are keeping the pressure on the league leaders.
Pep Guardiola’s men bested Crystal Palace 3–0 on Wednesday to come within two points of Arsenal, setting up a thrilling conclusion to the title showdown gripping fans throughout Europe and beyond. Each team only has two games left to play in the English top-flight this season, and the results will decide who gets crowned champions.
Elsewhere in the table, the race for the Champions League places is fiercer than ever, especially with sixth place potentially qualifying as well. Even more exciting, though, is the battle to stay up between two London rivals.
Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer predicts the Premier League table to look like come the end of May.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Title Race
|
Predicted Position |
Team |
Actual Points |
Predicted Points |
Title Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Arsenal |
79 |
83.50 |
85.68% |
|
2. |
Man City |
77 |
80.43 |
14.32% |
Opta remains convinced Arsenal will win their first Premier League title in 22 years. The supercomputer gives the Gunners 85.68% odds to keep their place atop the table come the final matchday, especially since they only have Burnley and Crystal Palace left on their schedule.
Mikel Arteta’s men are predicted to finish with around 83 points, a number boosted by their three most recent league wins. The tally would be the lowest for a Premier League title winner since Leicester City topped the league with 81 points in 2015–16, but Arsenal won’t care.
City certainly will, though. Guardiola’s men are slated to miss out on the English crown by just three points. Despite bouncing back against Brentford and Crystal Palace, their costly draw against Everton sealed their runners-up finish, at least in Opta’s eyes.
The Citizens have just a 14.32% chance of snatching the title from Arsenal, a feat not helped by their challenging matches against Bournemouth and Aston Villa to close out the season.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Race for Europe
Champions League Battle
|
Predicted Position |
Team |
Actual Points |
Predicted Points |
UCL Qualification Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3. |
Man Utd |
65 |
68.13 |
100% |
|
4. |
Liverpool |
59 |
62.33 |
97.03% |
|
5. |
Aston Villa |
59 |
61.07 |
87.18% |
|
6. |
Bournemouth |
55 |
57.46 |
10.38% |
|
7. |
Brighton |
53 |
56.11 |
5.41% |
Manchester United are sitting pretty, already qualified for the 2026–27 Champions League thanks to their resurgence under Michael Carrick. The Red Devils are projected to finish third, their best placing since 2022–23.
Trailing in fourth place are Liverpool, who Opta backs to also secure a place in Europe’s premier club competition with around 62 points despite a rather wretched campaign. The Reds went from winning the title last year to barely scraping out results against teams far below their typical standards.
Aston Villa are nipping at their heels, but their final standing won’t matter should they win the Europa League final, which comes with a place in next season’s Champions League. Still, the supercomputer gives the Villans a 87.18% chance of finishing fifth and securing their return regardless of the outcome in Istanbul.
Currently on the outside looking in are Bournemouth and Brighton & Hove Albion. The Cherries might be on a 17-game unbeaten run, but they are still in line for a sixth place finish, per Opta. The Seagulls are slated to finish seventh, leaving both teams settling for the Europa League and Conference League respectively.
The Mix for Sixth
|
Predicted Position |
Team |
Actual Points |
Predicted Points |
6th-Place Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6. |
Bournemouth |
55 |
57.46 |
48.09% |
|
7. |
Brighton |
53 |
56.11 |
32.43% |
|
8. |
Brentford |
51 |
53.78 |
3.83% |
|
9. |
Chelsea |
49 |
52.06 |
0.74% |
|
10. |
Everton |
49 |
52.05 |
0.36% |
As of now, only the top five teams in the Premier League are guaranteed a Champions League berth next season. But if Aston Villa finish fifth and win the Europa League, then the team in sixth place will also qualify for Europe’s premier club competition.
Suddenly, the race for the top five has turned into the race for the top six. Bournemouth and Brighton lead the charge, but the supercomputer gives the former the slight edge. The Cherries are predicted to finish with around 57 points, just one more than the Seagulls’ 56 points.
Fabian Hürzeler’s men would then have to wait yet another season to make their Champions League debut, as would Brentford. Also missing out would be Chelsea, who have not won a league match since March 4.
Opta tips the Blues to finish all the way down in ninth place, with just 52 points, around the same amount as Everton. It has truly been a stunning fall from grace for Chelsea considering they won the Club World Cup last summer and sat fourth in the table on Christmas Day.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Relegation Battle
|
Predicted Position |
Team |
Actual Points |
Predicted Points |
Relegation Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
14. |
Leeds |
44 |
46.41 |
0% |
|
15. |
Crystal Palace |
44 |
45.85 |
0% |
|
16. |
Nottingham Forest |
43 |
45.28 |
0% |
|
17. |
Tottenham |
38 |
40.56 |
19.07% |
|
18. |
West Ham |
36 |
38.61 |
80.93% |
|
19. |
Burnley |
21 |
22.74 |
100% |
|
20. |
Wolves |
18 |
20.22 |
100% |
What was once an action-packed relegation battle has come down to a fight between Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United; one will stay up in 17th place and one will go down in 18th place.
Both clubs dropped points at the weekend, with Spurs only managing a 1–1 draw with Leeds United while the Hammers controversially fell 1–0 to Arsenal. But Roberto De Zerbi’s men still have a two-point buffer to the drop zone, enough for Opta to put its faith in the north London outfit to avoid a historic relegation by that exact number.
West Ham, meanwhile, have 80.93% odds of playing in the Championship next season alongside the already-relegated Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Leeds United and Nottingham Forest have done enough to secure their safety, while Crystal Palace’s skid down the standings is not enough to threaten the Eagles’ place in the English top-flight.
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