The Championship play-off semi-final between Millwall and Hull City is balanced on a knife edge.
A goalless draw in the first leg means we are left with a 90-minute shoot-out (or possibly 120 minutes and penalties) at The Den to reach Wembley on Monday night.
It may be third versus sixth, but Friday night’s first leg proved that there is almost nothing between these two sides.
History is in Millwall’s favour, however…
It has been seven years since a sixth-placed side won their semi-final in the Championship to reach Wembley, and that involved a minor miracle in the second leg when Derby beat Leeds in 2019.
As you can see, there have only been four occasions out of 21 in the Championship era when the sixth-placed side has overcome third over their two legs.
Story of the first leg
You didn’t miss a lot.
Jake Cooper, the 6ft4in Millwall centre-back, created more chances than any other player. That sort of tells you all you need to know.
It was a tense, nervy affair at the MKM Stadium on Friday night. Hull City had a very early chance after some dazzling footwork from Mohamed Belloumi, but both sides then seemed to lean into the idea of a goalless draw pretty quickly after that.
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Ryan Leonard’s opening goal was disallowed for a foul by Tristan Crama on Charlie Hughes.
One moment of contention arose in the closing stages when Ryan Leonard put the ball in the back of the net for Millwall, but it was immediately flagged and ruled out for a foul in the build-up, with Tristan Crama deemed to have impinged upon Charlie Hughes.
You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to work out that one manager thought it should have been given, while the other was firmly in favour of the referee’s decision.
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Millwall head coach Alex Neil and Hull head coach Sergej Jakirovic react to Ryan Leonard’s disallowed goal.
“It was really soft,” Millwall boss Alex Neil told Sky Sports. “Both lads were at it so it will be interesting to hear [the referee’s] thoughts when he watches it back.”
While Hull boss Sergej Jakirovic added: “It was a clear foul. There was a lot of pulling and pushing, so by the rules it is a foul.”
Monday 11th May 7:30pm
Kick off 8:00pm
Who are favourites heading into the second leg?
By sheer logic it has to be Millwall. Win at home, and they are through to the final.
But then, Hull City have won their last two at The Den, including a 3-1 win in December this season. Generally, both these sides have been better away from home for the entire campaign.
“The game’s in the balance,” said former Hull defender Michael Dawson. “[The first leg] didn’t surprise me; I expected it to play out the way it did.
“Will Hull reflect on it as a missed opportunity if they do miss out on Monday night? Millwall have to be favourites.”
While former Millwall boss Gary Rowett is expecting a fine atmosphere at The Den. It is the biggest game the stadium has ever hosted.
“The atmosphere is going to be electric,” he said. “It is a tough place to go and play.
“I don’t think Millwall will start the second leg any differently. Hull are such a transition team, but Millwall don’t give you many transitions and they don’t try to build possession all the time.
“They are a very difficult team to press and to put pressure on. I don’t think Alex Neil does anything different, but he probably makes changes a little bit earlier if he needs to.
“In fairness to Hull, they have gone there already and won this season, so maybe that gives them a little bit of extra confidence. It’s only a tough place to play if you’re on top and you’re playing well.
“I’d expect Millwall to finish the job off. Based on what I’ve seen [in the first leg], I would definitely fancy Millwall.”
