EUR/JPY edged lower to 182.01 last week but rebounded since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Break of 182.01 will extend the fall from 187.93 to 180.78 support. Nevertheless, firm break of 185.02 will suggest that pullback from 187.93 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting this high.
In the bigger picture, the pullback from 187.93 is steep, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 177.79) will argue that it’s already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long 55 W EMA (now at 177.79) holds.
