E-commerce air trade volumes out of China, which have turbocharged air cargo demand in recent years, declined in March for the first time in a number of years.
Analysis carried out by consultant and data provider Aevean shows that in March, e-commerce volumes from China declined by 6% year on year.
Aevean managing director Marco Bloemen pointed out that this is the first year-on-year decline since June 2023.
Bloemen said that the decline was driven by the ongoing impact of the US withdrawing the de minmis exemption and the outbreak of fighting between the US and Iran in the Middle East at the end of March.
Indeed, the consultant’s figures show that e-commerce demand between China and North America was down 24% year on year, while the drop off to Middle East/South Asia was 45%.
However, the situation is expected to improve in April.
Aevean pointed out that the US removed the de minimis exemption for low-value packages from China in early April last year, meaning that this month is the first like-for-like comparison since the exemption ended.
Meanwhile, airspace in the Middle East gradually reopened in April as peace talks between the US and Iran got underway and a fragile ceasefire was implemented.
While e-commerce demand from China was down to North America and the Middle East, there were improvements elsewhere.
Volumes to Europe increased by 27% and Latin America was up 31%, although neither was enough to offset the other declines.
E-commerce volumes in June 2023 fell due to sluggish economies, an inflation-related consumer spending slowdown and growing trade tensions.
