Key Points
It has been a rough couple of years for electric vehicle (EV) stocks not named Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). But right now, investors can secure bargain valuations on two electric car makers with big plans over the next few years. One of these stocks is extremely speculative. But the other has an upcoming growth catalyst that appears incredibly undervalued right now.
1. Lucid Group is a lottery ticket with high upside
Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID) is one of my favorite companies to track. The company, at least on paper, has a lot to offer. I’m excited about its vision as primarily a supplier of technology to the transportation sector long term. Its former CEO revealed last year that he wanted the company to be just 20% auto manufacturer and 80% tech supplier.
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This approach, I recently argued, should attract higher margins, greater customer retention rates, and lower capital needs. There’s just one problem: I’m not sure Lucid will ever scale enough to properly make the transition.
The transportation space is quickly moving — faster than ever before — toward full self-driving capabilities thanks to rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI). For training and validation purposes, these models require access to huge datasets. This is why Tesla’s robotaxi dreams are so feasible. It has millions of vehicles driving on the roads right now, delivering massive amounts of real-world data on a daily basis.
Right now, Lucid doesn’t have a vehicle on the market for less than $70,000. That’s a big reason why the company shipped fewer than 17,000 units last year. The company wants to launch a mass market model priced under $50,000. But for now, details remain scarce. I’m unsure if Lucid, with limited capital, will be able to manage this feat over the next 12 months to 24 months. That leaves it with a sizable data disadvantage to Tesla, as well as to a more promising EV maker discussed below.
With a market cap of just $3.5 billion, Lucid shares have huge upside potential when compared to Tesla’s valuation, which is now north of $1 trillion. But without a clear path toward scaling a mass market vehicle, an investment in the company should be strictly considered a lottery ticket only.
2. Rivian is my top growth stock for 2026
Looking for something less speculative? Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) arguably has all the potential upside of Lucid Group with an upcoming growth catalyst that should provide some real-world sales traction as soon as next month.
Image source: Getty Images.
Rivian has two big advantages versus Lucid. First, its R2 model — its first vehicle priced under $50,000 — is expected to begin deliveries next month. Second, the company has already invested heavily into AI, with more meaningful investments on the way, such as its intention to produce its own AI chips. This emphasis on AI will complement the launch of its R2 SUV as the company will gain significantly more real-world data following the start of deliveries. In 2027 and 2028, the EV maker also aims to launch two additional affordable vehicles — the R3 and R3X — further aiding its access to real-world training data.
One of the most difficult things an EV start-up can do is launch a vehicle priced under $50,000 that is accessible by the masses. In 2017, Tesla began deliveries of its first mass market vehicle: the Model 3. From the start of 2017 through the end of 2020, shares soared by more than 1,400% largely due to the success of the Model 3.
Will Rivian have the same success? Due to a reduction in incentives, many major automakers in the U.S. have slashed investment in new EVs. Even Tesla is ending production of its luxury models: the Model S and Model X, hoping to focus more on AI and robotics.
While the regulatory environment isn’t as kind to EV makers as years past, EVs still represent a much higher share of total auto sales in the U.S. than when Tesla began deliveries of its Model 3 sedan and later its Model Y crossover. With SUV sales soaring — the category accounted for more than 50% of total auto sales last year — Rivian could be in the right place at the right time. With a market cap of just $20 billion, Rivian investors could stand to make a fortune if its sales trajectory is anywhere close to what Tesla achieved with the Model 3.
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Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
