Hong Kong/Beijing
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In quick succession, US President Donald Trump has taken out two of Beijing’s closest allies: Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
The former is now in shackles in a New York detention facility after being snatched from Caracas by US special forces in an extraordinary overnight raid. The latter was killed in a daring daylight bomb drop in the center of Tehran in a joint US mission with Israel.
In the aftermath, China has responded with anger – condemning the capture or killing of a sovereign leader and the apparent US attempt at regime change while reaching out to Iran express its friendship. But Beijing has done little more than look on as its geopolitical rival shakes up the rules of engagement.
For Chinese leader Xi Jinping, a hard-nosed pragmatism is at play.
Iran ultimately ranks below his top priorities, including the stability of its relations with the US, particularly as it eyes the upcoming summit with Trump in Beijing later this month. China may also welcome Washington’s attention and military resources being diverted away from the Indo-Pacific, experts said.
“China is a fair-weather friend – long on words, short on risk,” said Craig Singleton, senior director for China at the Washington, DC-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Beijing will speak up at the United Nations but steer clear of providing any significant support to Tehran.”
Though Beijing is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, the country’s strategic importance to China is far more limited than many may assume. Military cooperation between the two has remained constrained, and trade and investment flows are eclipsed by those with several Gulf states, as Beijing seeks to maintain balanced ties across the Middle East.
China “sees no benefit in heightening tension with the US over Iran,” said William Yang, senior analyst at Belgium-based think tank International Crisis Group.
“It still attaches greater importance to maintaining the trade truce and overall stability in the bilateral relationship with the US, so it will not want to jeopardize the positive momentum that it has built with the Trump administration over the last year.”
China has long been Iran’s most important source of diplomatic and economic support. In addition to purchasing the bulk of Iran’s oil exports, Beijing has denounced what it calls “unilateral” US sanctions imposed on Iran, and supported Tehran’s insistence that its nuclear program is peaceful.
In recent years, China has elevated Iran’s global standing by bringing it into Beijing-backed groupings such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, widening Tehran’s diplomatic space at a time of Western isolation.
Chinese firms have also supplied chemicals used in Iran’s missile program and helped build out its domestic surveillance infrastructure, CNN has reported. Beijing maintains that its trade with Iran complies with international law.
But China has consistently steered clear of direct involvement in its partners’ conflicts, showing little appetite for wading into Middle Eastern security matters beyond protecting its own assets.
That restraint was evident during Iran’s conflict with Israel last year and subsequent US aerial attacks, when China similarly only offered rhetorical support.
“China has long avoided presenting itself as a security guarantor to Global South countries too, as the US involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq serves as cautionary tales that deter Beijing from pursuing such an ambition,” said Yang.
Beijing’s relationship with Iran helps strengthen its energy security and influence in the Middle East, but it has also courted other regional players like Saudi Arabia, Iran’s rival, as it seeks to strike a balance in the Middle East. In 2023, it played a role in brokering a rapprochement between the two.
Still, concern has been growing in Washington about the firming ties between China, Iran, Russia and North Korea. Leaders from all four countries gathered in Beijing last September for a startling show of unity at a major military parade. And China, Russia and Iran have also held regular joint military drills in recent years.
“Iran has been a longtime partner of the PRC, but it is far away and not existential or perhaps even critical to the PRC,” said Ja Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, referring to China by its formal name, the People’s Republic of China.
But the limited support Beijing has offered Iran during two major military attacks over the last year raises questions about its reliability as a partner during adversity.
“Others who work with or wish to work with the PRC on security issues may rightly ask if Beijing will abandon them, especially if they are far away from the PRC – as in the case of Iran and Venezuela earlier,” he said.
Analysts, however, agree that no matter who succeeds Khamenei, Tehran will likely maintain its ties with China, for its economic clout.
Events in Iran also present China with several structural opportunities, said Zhu Zhaoyi, director of the Middle East Institute at the Peking University HSBC Business School.
“America’s deep involvement in military conflict in the Middle East inevitably diverts its strategic resources and attention, objectively constraining its capacity to sustain pressure on China in the Indo-Pacific,” Zhu wrote in an online article Monday.
A sustained campaign against Iran could also deplete America’s weapons supplies. Beijing has barred the export of rare earth elements for military use, which could make it more difficult for Washington to replenish its resources. The elements are crucial for a wide range of weapons from missiles to fighter jets.
But short-term disruptions to China, especially on the energy front, remain inevitable.
Nearly all of Iran’s crude exports ended up in China, and those account for about 13% of China’s total seaborne crude intake, according to data analytics firm Kpler.
The two countries’ energy trade relies on a network of vessels that filter Iranian oil to smaller independent refineries in coastal China, often through intermediary countries, according to analysts, who note this practice keeps refinement separate from Chinese state-owned enterprises that would be vulnerable to US sanctions.
These so-called teapot refineries are known to work with what’s often referred to as a dark fleet of tankers that use concealing tactics to smuggle sanctioned goods. The Trump administration has placed players alleged to be involved both in shipping and refining under sanctions as it ramped up pressure on Iran since last year.
Despite sizeble Iranian oil imports, analysts believe the short-term impact should be manageable as China has diversified its oil supply over the years.
Richard Jones, a crude oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told CNN that Iran has boosted exports since mid-February and private refineries can still access some Iranian oil through their floating storage vessels, most of which are off Singapore. On top of that, they could also increase intake of Russian crude, he added.
Still, a bigger headache for Beijing appears to be extensive conflict in the region and major disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz – a critical shipping route for crude from countries including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Crude from the region accounts for roughly one-third of China’s total demand and more than 50% of its seaborne imports, much of which were transported through the strait, according to Kpler.
Iran controls the strait’s northern side and on Monday an adviser to a commander with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened to set any passing ships “on fire.”
Even before the adviser’s comments, traffic through the waterway had effectively stopped due to safety concerns and after oil tankers in the region came under attack over the weekend.
Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry, stressed the importance of the strait for trade and urged an immediate ceasefire.
“Safeguarding security and stability in this region serves the common interests of the international community,” she said at a Tuesday press conference.
But years of stockpiling could shield China from immediate supply shocks. China now holds roughly 1.2 billion barrels of onshore crude inventories, equivalent to about 115 days of its seaborne crude imports, Kpler data shows.
China is likely to use US military intervention in Iran to reinforce its messaging, particularly to countries in the Global South, that Washington acts as a hegemonic power, while Beijing presents itself as a champion of non-interference.
Some Chinese analysts argue that not providing security guarantees to partners represents a calculated approach from Beijing that differentiates it from the US.
“It gives China greater flexibility, reduces the risk of strategic overstretch, and avoids the costs that come with underwriting allies’ security,” said Zichen Wang, deputy secretary general at the Center for China and Globalization, a non-government think tank in Beijing.
“But it also constrains Beijing’s ability to shape hard security outcomes once a crisis turns violent,” he added, warning that China’s inaction could further embolden Trump’s risky moves.
