This week, the Champions League playoffs will determine the remaining teams advancing to the round of 16.
The data and predictions from Opta’s supercomputer have projected the return matches to define the extent of each team’s favoritism.
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Will we see any surprises?
See what the numbers tell us about the outcome of each duel:
Tuesday, February 24
Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge (First Leg: 3-3)
This is the only matchup that arrives tied for the return game, after an electrifying 3-3 in Belgium. Atlético managed to open a 2-0 lead and almost won with an own goal in the final stretch, but Christos Tzolis secured the draw for Brugge in the last minute.
According to Opta, Atlético de Madrid is the big favorite to advance, with a 74.8% probability. However, Club Brugge has suffered only one defeat in the last eight Champions League games under Ivan Leko, showing that the Belgian team will be resilient.
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Bayer Leverkusen vs. Olympiakos (First Leg: 2-0)
Thanks to two quick goals by Patrik Schick in Greece, Leverkusen enters the field with a comfortable 2-0 lead. Historically, out of 191 cases where a team lost by two or more goals at home in the first leg, only two managed to turn it around in the knockout stages of the competition.
Opta indicates that the German team has a 93.1% chance of reaching the round of 16, and a 50.8% probability of winning this specific match. The track record also helps: Leverkusen advanced in 20 of the last 22 European matchups in which they won the first game.
Newcastle United vs. Qarabag (First Leg: 6-1)
The matchup already seems resolved after Newcastle’s thrashing in Azerbaijan, driven by Anthony Gordon’s four goals in the first half. No team in the history of major European competitions has lost by five or more goals in the first leg and managed to advance.
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The projections confirm the scenario: the supercomputer gives the Magpies an impressive 99.8% chance of qualifying. Playing without pressure at St. James’ Park, the English team is a clear favorite, with a 77.7% probability of another victory.
Internazionale vs. Bodø/Glimt (First Leg: 1-3)
Bodø/Glimt achieved a fantastic result by beating Inter Milan 3-1 at home, adding the Italians to a recent list of victims that includes Manchester City and Atlético de Madrid.
Despite Inter being the favorite for the return game (with a 71.7% chance of an isolated win), Opta’s projections indicate that the Norwegian advantage should weigh: Bodø/Glimt advances to the round of 16 in 59.8% of simulations. If confirmed, it will be the first Norwegian team to advance in the knockout stage since 1987-88.
Wednesday, February 25
Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund (First Leg: 0-2)
Atalanta faces a tough mission after losing 2-0 in Germany, in a game where they only shot seven times – their second-worst mark in 42 Champions League games. Additionally, the Italians have been eliminated the last four times they lost the first knockout game in European tournaments.
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The supercomputer reflects this difficulty: the Italian team has only a 16.3% chance of overturning the score. Dortmund built its advantage well in the first half of the first leg with Guirassy and Beier, and is the favorite to secure the spot.
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Monaco (First Leg: 3-2)
Monaco started with high hopes by opening 2-0 with Folarin Balogun, but saw the current European champion turn the match around to 3-2 at Stade Louis II. To worsen the principality’s scenario, they have never advanced after losing the first leg at home in major European competitions (seven eliminations in seven cases).
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The projections reflect the historical weight. In Opta’s simulations, Monaco advances in only 8.8% of scenarios, leaving PSG with the qualification well underway.
Juventus vs. Galatasaray (First Leg: 2-5)
Galatasaray shocked Juventus by pulling off a 5-2 comeback in Turkey after going into halftime trailing. The second half was an absolute nightmare for the Italians, who conceded four goals and also had Juan Cabal sent off. Only four teams have managed to advance after losing the first leg by three or more goals in Champions League history.
Still, Opta sees considerable hope for the Old Lady: Juventus secured qualification in 14.6% of simulations, making this an unpredictable game.
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Real Madrid vs. Benfica (First Leg: 1-0)
In this third meeting between the teams just this season, Real Madrid defends a minimal advantage achieved in a tumultuous first leg. The Spaniards rely on Kylian Mbappé, the absolute top scorer with 13 goals, who needs just five more to break Cristiano Ronaldo’s historical record in a single edition. Benfica will not have coach José Mourinho on the sidelines, as the Portuguese was sent off at the end of the first match.
According to Opta, the Eagles have a 19.1% chance of winning at the Bernabéu, but advance in only 13.4% of the projections.
This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.
