Will the market crash in 2026? Billionaire investor says it feels ‘exactly like 1999.’ Catch the run-up before the fall
Uncategorized
Will the market crash in 2026? Billionaire investor says it feels ‘exactly like 1999.’ Catch the run-up before the fall
019 mins
Michael Ostuni / Getty Images
Moneywise and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue through links in the content below.
With U.S. stocks powering higher, enthusiasm is running hot. But billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones says today’s environment is giving him flashbacks to the dot-com boom — and not in a warm and fuzzy way.
“It’s like the Prince song — party like it’s 1999, right?” Jones said in an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box, adding that the setup “feels exactly like 1999 (1).”
He pointed to what happened next: “Remember, the Nasdaq doubled between the first week of October ’99 and March of 2000. So if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it’s probably not a chicken, right?”
The late-’99 stock market boom was breathtaking, but the aftermath was brutal. From March 2000 to October 2002, the Nasdaq Composite plunged nearly 78% as the dot-com bubble burst (2). With echoes of that era growing louder, many investors might assume the safest move now is to step aside.
But Jones suggests sitting it out could mean missing a powerful finish.
“So if you don’t play it, you’re missing out on the juice,” he warned. “If you do play it, you have to have really happy feet, because there will be a really, really bad end to it.”
He underscored that late-cycle rallies often deliver the biggest gains. In bull markets, he said, “the greatest price appreciation is always the 12 months preceding the top.”
His takeaway? “You have to position yourself like it’s October ’99.”
In his view, a substantial run-up may still be ahead. In fact, Jones believes today’s backdrop could be “so much more potentially explosive than 1999.”
Jones is confident that today’s run-up could be bigger than 1999 because of two forces: central bank policy and government spending.
He noted that in 1999, the Federal Reserve was raising rates and the federal government was running a budget surplus.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut rates three times in 2025.
And although the U.S. deficit fell by 15% year-over-year in 2025, it’s expected to grow again this year due to President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, according to Kelly Evans, co-host of CNBC’s Power Lunch (3).
Jones’s forecast? “We’re in a period that’s conducive for massive price appreciation in a variety of assets.”
So what does he want to own?
“I’d want to have a combination of gold, crypto, probably the NASDAQ,” he stated.
Let’s take a closer look at these assets and evaluate his assessment.
Jones pointed to a key message he believes markets are sending.
“I think what the markets are telling you: This is an inflation story down the road,” he said. “If you look at the biggest winners — the biggest winners are gold.”
Indeed, despite a recent pullback, gold is still up about 71% over the past 12 months — outpacing other major asset classes when it comes to return on investment (4). This is also a high-water mark for the precious yellow metal, at a spot price of about $4,756 per ounce as of mid-January.
Gold has long been a go-to hedge against inflation. The logic is straightforward: Unlike fiat currencies, it can’t be printed at will by central banks.
It’s also widely viewed as the ultimate safe-haven asset. Gold isn’t tied to any single country, currency or economy, and when financial markets turn volatile or geopolitical tensions flare, investors often flock to it — driving prices higher.
Jones isn’t the only Wall Street heavyweight pointing to gold’s potential. Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, told CNBC that “people don’t have, typically, an adequate amount of gold in their portfolio,” adding that “when bad times come, gold is a very effective diversifier (5).”
Meanwhile, JPMorgan’s gold forecast for 2026 suggests gold will push towards $5,000 per ounce by the end of the year (6). That’s around 9% more than mid-January’s spot price.
Gold IRAs allow investors to hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, thereby combining the tax advantages of an IRA with the protective benefits of investing in gold. This can make it an option for those looking to help shield their retirement funds against economic uncertainties.
Even better, when you make a qualifying purchase with Priority Gold, you can receive up to $10,000 in precious metals for free. Just remember that gold is typically best used as one part of a portfolio.
Bitcoin is often described as “digital gold,” and while Jones still favors the traditional metal, he’s also enthusiastic about its newer, digital counterpart.
“Crypto — digital gold — that’s obviously something that’s very, very appealing,” he said.
Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, has staged a powerful rally in recent years. The ride hasn’t been smooth — pullbacks can feel like a roller coaster, like in the fall of 2025 — but long-term believers point to one core feature: scarcity.
Like gold, bitcoin can’t be created in unlimited quantities. Instead, its supply is capped at 21 million by the exponential increase in the cost of mining coins over time.
For those looking to hop on the bitcoin bandwagon, new crypto platforms have made it easier for everyday investors.
For those looking to hop on the bitcoin bandwagon, platforms like Robinhood Crypto allow users to buy and sell crypto with as little as $1 without any trading fees or commissions.
Robinhood Crypto has the lowest trading cost on average in the U.S. — meaning you could get up to 2.7% more crypto compared to trading on other platforms.
Jones also cited the Nasdaq as another area he wants exposure to. That may sound familiar: During 1999’s melt-up, technology stocks led the charge. Today’s backdrop shows similar momentum. Since bottoming out in April, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has surged roughly 52% (6).
Much of that strength has come from mega-cap tech companies investing heavily in artificial intelligence. Markets are assigning rich valuations to the potential of this new era — and for now, optimism remains a dominant force. Opinions are divided on whether we’re in the thick of a bubble or nearing the end.
CEO Larry Fink of BlackRock told CNBC “I think some of the investments that we’ve seen so far is not on AI, it’s more on cloud and the power of cloud. So I don’t believe this is a bubble, but I believe this is capital that in most cases is going to be well spent (7).”
On the other side of the aisle are those who believe the market is in a massive, largely AI-driven bubble.
“Are we in an AI bubble? Of course!” Pat Gelsinger, the former CEO of Intel, said in the same CNBC article. “I mean, we’re hyped, we’re accelerating, we’re putting enormous leverage into the system.”
To avoid having your whole portfolio overindexed in AI, there are a number of alternative assets you could consider, especially given the overrepresentation of high-value AI companies in traditional investment recommendations such as the S&P 500.
After all, diversification isn’t just smart — it’s essential.
For instance, billionaires like Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates continue to invest heavily in stocks, but they also carve out a portion of their portfolios for assets that behave differently from the market. These alternative assets can cover everything from real estate to private equity and gold.
Yet there’s another alternative asset that’s infrequently mentioned, but has almost no correlation with the stock market. It’s also a globally valued asset, meaning that it is somewhat resistant to swings in the value of the U.S. dollar.
The asset in question? Art.
Up until recently, this hedge was almost always the domain of high-net-worth investors through exclusive access to a network of appraisers, curators, buyers and sellers.
But now, with Masterworks, you can buy fractional shares in multimillion-dollar works by icons like Banksy, Picasso and Basquiat. While art can be illiquid and typically requires a long-term hold, it offers unique opportunities for portfolio diversification.
Even better, Masterworks has sold 25 artworks so far, yielding net annualized returns like 14.6%, 17.6% and 17.8% among assets held for longer than a year.
Moneywise readers can get priority access to diversify with art: Skip the waitlist to take advantage of art as an asset today.
Note that past performance is not indicative of future returns. Investing involves risk. See important Regulation A disclosures at Masterworks.com/cd
Whatever your investing inclinations, Jones’ warning is clear: While the setup today could fuel a powerful run-up, these don’t last forever — and when optimism hits its peak, reversals can be swift.
In his own words, if you join the rally, you may need “really happy feet” when the music stops. That means being prepared to make quick moves, which can be a challenge if you’re investing alone.
For many investors, that’s where professional guidance can help. Positioning for upside while managing risk isn’t always easy — especially in a market environment that can shift quickly, much like in the late ’90s. Having a plan in place before volatility strikes can make all the difference.
A financial advisor can help crunch the numbers and build a plan that works.
But hiring an advisor can be a lifelong commitment, which might make or break your retirement. That’s why finding reliable advisors is crucial.
That’s where Advisor.com can come in. The platform connects you with an expert near you for free.
Advisor.com does the heavy lifting for you, vetting advisors based on track record, client ratios and regulatory background. Plus, their network comprises fiduciaries, who are legally required to act in your best interests.
Just enter a few details about your finances and goals, and Advisor.com’s AI-powered matching tool will connect you with a qualified expert best suited for your needs based on your unique financial goals and preferences.
Once you’ve got the right financial advisor in your corner, the next step is getting a clear picture of where your money’s actually going.
That starts with the basics — budgeting and tracking your spending.
A quick daily check-in of your accounts can show you exactly where your money is going.
An app like Rocket Money can easily flag recurring subscriptions, upcoming bills and unusual charges by pulling in transactions from all your linked accounts.
This can help you cut unnecessary costs, and then you can manually redirect savings straight into your retirement fund. No spreadsheets, no guesswork, no stress. Small habits like this can make a big difference over time.
Rocket Money’s intuitive app offers a variety of free and premium tools. Free features include subscription tracking, bill reminders and budgeting basics, while premium features — like automated savings, net worth tracking, customizable dashboards, and more — make it easier to stay on top of your retirement contributions and overall financial goals.
