Welcome to week 13 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions, which is brought to you in association with hubris.
The previous update was written a little too gleefully as I reflected on a two-week surge that had taken me top of our predictions table, ahead of the dreaded algorithm.
Could I handle the pressure of leading from the front? Could I heck.
Last weekend was a disaster. I picked up a solitary point, with only Arsenal’s victory in the north London derby saving me from an embarrassing total wipeout. It was a low-scoring week for most of us (with one very notable exception) but I paid the price for getting carried away, thinking I was being smart by predicting Burnley to draw against Chelsea, chasing a bonus point rather than playing it safe.
In fairness, most of my other predictions were at least excusable — if it can be considered excusable to back the Liverpool of recent weeks and the Manchester United of recent … well, years.
Each week, four of us — a guest subscriber, the algorithm, six-year-old Wilfred and I — are predicting the Premier League results.
We’re awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one point for a correct result. There’s also a bonus point for any correct “unique” prediction, so if anyone had predicted Nottingham Forest to win at Liverpool, or visitors Everton to beat Manchester United, they would have got four points.
Wilfred, who has had some rotten luck at times over the season’s opening three months, had a fantastic week, showing up the rest of us by picking up four-pointers for both Chelsea’s 2-0 victory at Burnley and Aston Villa’s 2-1 away win against Leeds.
It was a challenging week in more ways than one for guest subscriber Collin from Richmond in the U.S. state of Virginia. It was perhaps a little unfair to put a Tottenham fan in that position before a derby match they seemed unlikely to win, but at least he picked up points for away victories by Chelsea, Crystal Palace and Villa. Some of us weren’t so smart.
This week’s guest subscriber is Kian, a 24-year-old Forest fan from Nottingham.
Over to you, Kian.
Our subscriber’s match of the week
West Ham vs Liverpool, Sunday, 2.05pm UK/9.05am ET
Kian says: “It is not the biggest game, but may be the most pivotal for some fates. A Slot Machine giving up a win is usually an uncommon event, yet this being the case in six of the last seven Premier League outings for Liverpool will have the House hoping there is some reprieve. So naturally, Nuno Espirito Santo, who frustrated Slot twice as Forest head coach last season, is next up with an improving West Ham. A point to prove after last weekend may see him inside Slot’s head again, however, some of Liverpool’s chances inevitably have to find the net at some point.”
West Ham 1-2 Liverpool
Oli says: “Even after everything we had seen over the previous couple of months, I expected Liverpool to beat Nottingham Forest last weekend. Even after everything we saw as they capitulated at home to Forest, I expected them to bounce back by beating PSV Eindhoven. But everything I have seen over the past week, with even Virgil van Dijk being dragged down to the level of those who have been underperforming since the season began, I do not expect them to beat West Ham. Psychologically they look so damaged right now.”
West Ham 2-1 Liverpool
The rest of Oli’s predictions
Brentford vs Burnley
Not only are Brentford surpassing expectations in terms of results once again this season, but in several cases, their performances have deserved greater rewards. I felt they would struggle after the loss of head coach Thomas Frank and four key players this summer, but Michael Kayode, Yehor Yarmolyuk and Igor Thiago have been revelations and so, in a different way, has Frank’s successor, Keith Andrews. Home win.
Brentford 2-0 Burnley
Sunderland vs Bournemouth
Another two teams I’ve been guilty of underestimating. Then again, so has pretty much everyone else. Opta’s Supercomputer still predicts Sunderland, despite their excellent start, to finish around 15th/16th, suggesting they are far more likely to finish in the bottom four (20.4 per cent) than the top 10 (13.6 per cent). A slide seems largely inevitable — no shame in that — but I don’t think it will be as bad as that. Nevertheless, with back-to-back trips to Liverpool and Manchester City to follow this match, they will be desperate to make home advantage count against Bournemouth.
Sunderland 1-1 Bournemouth
Manchester City vs Leeds
City are back! Oh, no, they’re not. Oh no, they are back! Oh, no, they’re not. Pep Guardiola’s team have produced a handful of uplifting performances this season, particularly in contrast to this time last year, but there is still something missing when it comes to fluency, consistency, game management, all of that. At least the Premier League fixture list offers some scope for a run of “City are back” performances, starting here at home to Leeds, whose manager, Daniel Farke, is under severe pressure after five defeats in six games.
Manchester City 3-0 Leeds
Everton vs Newcastle
That was a terrific win for Everton at Old Trafford on Monday, one that should have David Moyes and his players looking upwards rather than over their shoulders at Liverpool, who trail their Merseyside neighbours on goal difference. Can the build on it against a travel-sick Newcastle (no wins in their six Premier League away games this season)? I think they might.
Everton 1-0 Newcastle
Tottenham vs Fulham
I agree with much of the criticism of Tottenham’s passive approach to last Sunday’s north London derby, but some of it has come with a disconcerting amount of venom towards new head coach Frank. As shown last season, this is a squad that lacks depth, experience and resilience in key areas. Like in 2024-25, it has been seriously stretched by injuries. They’ve just had a grim run of fixtures that has gone about as badly as most Spurs fans feared it would. Frank needs wins, but he could probably do with a little patience, too. Not that he will get much if they stumble at home to Fulham.
Tottenham 1-1 Fulham
Crystal Palace vs Manchester United
Palace’s recent record in this fixture is excellent: three wins and a draw in the past four league meetings, including a resounding 4-0 victory at Selhurst Park in May last year, which was also one of the worst United performances I’ve ever seen. In a different way, so was United’s 1-0 defeat to Everton on Monday. It was remarkable to be so lacking in ideas and imagination — not least from head coach Ruben Amorim — and incisiveness when a goal down at home against 10-man Everton. They have shown improvement this season, but it has been far too meagre to inspire confidence in the way forward. This is a serious test.
Crystal Palace 1-1 Manchester United
Aston Villa vs Wolves
Like Villa a decade ago, Wolves look like a relegation waiting to happen this season. I do expect some improvement under new head coach Rob Edwards, but his first four away games before the turn of the year (this one, then Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United) are of the type where any points will be a bonus. Unai Emery’s team, who are in excellent form, are unlikely to show their neighbours any mercy.
Aston Villa 2-0 Wolves
Nottingham Forest vs Brighton
One thing that wasn’t remarked upon enough after Forest’s 3-0 win at Liverpool last weekend: the quality of their defending. Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo, having come nowhere close to last season’s standard in the opening weeks of this one, were superb — no-nonsense defending of the type new head coach Sean Dyche demands from his players. Brighton are on form, but Forest look a different proposition to the early weeks of the campaign under Nuno Espirito Santo and successor Ange Postecoglou.
Nottingham Forest 1-0 Brighton
Chelsea vs Arsenal
I’m really looking forward to this one. Chelsea’s performance against Barcelona in the Champions League on Tuesday was so impressive and, with that momentum behind them, it feels plausible they could also win here and blow this title race wide open. But I’m reminded of something former Chelsea winger Pat Nevin said during BBC Radio 5 Live’s commentary of that Barca game: as well as they played against the Spanish champions, beating Arsenal will require them to go up another level. I’m predicting a pulsating, incident-packed draw — and one of the best games of the season.
Chelsea 2-2 Arsenal
