The following passage was part of Jim Cramer’s prepared introduction to Thursday’s monthly meeting of the CNBC Investing Club. September’s been an unusually benign month. We have not had the kind of turmoil we have become used to with President Donald Trump . We’re having a nice European respite so far, with Trump overseas. How long can that last? Sure, there’s the hectoring of Federal Reserve officials, Chairman Jerome Powell and Governor Lisa Cook, and the attempt by the president to make the central bank another appendage of the White House. I know that we have to care about the Fed’s independence. Yes, if it really were compromised, we would have to start investing in other countries, and we would do so if necessary. If the Fed were to cut extremely aggressively this year, as one errant Fed member seems to think is intelligent, our inflation rate would go up so quickly it might be dangerous to put too much money in the United States. The business press always has to have something to say each day, and debating the independence of the Fed is just the kind of gristle the media likes to sink its teeth into. It’s such an easy story to gin up. You don’t have to learn about stocks or price-to-earnings multiples, the biggest gainers, or the latest meme stocks. It’s just like one giant economics classroom. I don’t like economics classes. I like trying to make money, and classes don’t make you money. We still have some stories about individual tariffs, with most of them involving Nvidia , which I still say, “own it, don’t trade it.” We also have lots of chatter from brokerage firms about sales of the newest iPhones, like they really know how they are doing. What a joke. I spent a full day with Apple CEO Tim Cook last Friday, and he didn’t know how sales were doing. I will say the selfie feature on the camera that automatically includes everyone, no more half people, and the new iPhone Air, the version that feels as light as a candy bar, are going to drive worldwide sales. But, more importantly, the trade-in value on recent years’ models turns out to be much higher than you think. You combine the trade-in that everyone seems to have with the incentives from the cellular providers, and you have a price that is incredibly at odds with the media’s version of the “too expensive” iPhone. I can’t wait to upgrade. So, what will define the market in the final quarter of the year? My crystal ball doesn’t see more than a 3% to 5% correction between now and year-end. However, if it doesn’t happen soon, then it most likely won’t happen unless the president does something so horrendously unpredictable that it could bring the house down. That’s because of the phenomenon of money managers being too under-invested, so that they must use every decline that occurs between the end of October and year-end to buy stocks. We must ready ourselves to pounce. However, now that the Fed has spoken, we do have to be in a holding pattern for a bit to see if the yields on the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year Treasury go down or up. If yields fall and bring mortgage rates with them, we know that would be great for Home Depot , which enjoyed a march higher into the Fed’s first rate cut. If the yields on the longer end go higher, as it did last year after Fed cuts, then we should be glad we only own Home Depot among stocks closely tied to the housing trade, and I would be tempted to take the win. It’s why I say in my new book, “How to Make Money in Any Market,” that it is so darned hard to own anything but classic growth stocks. Fortunately, Home Depot has growth, but not the kind that can transcend the yield on the long end going the wrong way. Almost no stock can handle that if it goes on for too long, as we saw last year at this time. Unlike last year, though, employment is weaker, and the tariffs may end up being a one-time bump in inflation, although when a bump occurs, you aren’t all that sure it is just a bump. After the Fed announced a quarter-point rate cut Wednesday afternoon, it does feel for the moment that we are out of the woods until we get the next employment number the morning of Oct. 3, and the beginning of earnings season three weeks from now. The next Fed meeting is later, on Oct. 28 and 29, which may be the source of tremendous trepidation because the tariffs will be more fully hashed out, and you are going to see your costs go higher. I don’t expect a nightmare. I do expect that the undercurrent is going to remain, hotter prices, and this Fed chief will not want to cut rates into that environment. Once we get to November, the dip buyers will be so prevalent that I don’t expect any prolonged decline. The kinds of stocks we own are the ones that they will go for. I am certain of that. So why worry? Short term, I think the answer is China. Right now, we seem to be inclined to take on China ourselves. That’s not good enough, but our allies rely too much on China’s markets to help us. I think China wants to make Taiwan come to a head soon, and I regard that as the single biggest existential threat to the stock market in the short term. I am concerned that the upcoming trade talks with China are going to go very badly because, well, they always do. Long term, it is the U.S. Treasury glut and how we owe $37 trillion. But what people have to realize is that, just as you have to lead your life and not be scared of things you can do nothing about, that you can’t control, you have to similarly lead your investing life and make decisions about stocks that could cost you money if the unthinkable does happen — a land invasion of Taiwan or a default by the U.S. government. These issues are fraught, but I don’t think they will play out this year, even with the myriad bond auctions and the endless flexing of Chinese muscles. The most likely declines will come from earnings, and we will be ready to pounce when they do, as we are in a rate-cutting cycle – and I always say, like the late great investor Marty Zweig, don’t fight the Fed. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust, including NVDA, HD, AAPL.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
September to remember or calm before the storm? Cramer’s year-end market prediction
