Following speculation last month that Chinese leader Xi Jinping was facing internal challenges to his power, and that he had experienced a marked decline in prestige in China’s official media, we looked at his performance in the front-page headlines of the official People’s Daily — a fair if imperfect reflection of the prevailing internal consensus.
How do things stand now at the close of July?
By our latest front-page count, Xi Jinping’s performance remains consistent. The dip since 2023 is consistent with historical patterns, where steep jumps in frequency for the top leader can be seen in the wake of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) congresses. The first half of 2023 understandably brought a sharp incline in the use of new buzzwords and phrases from the political report to the 20th National Congress of the CCP, held from October 16-22, 2022.
Terms like “Chinese-style modernization” (中国式现代化) and “new form of human civilization” (人类文明新形态) were naturally pushed with renewed vigor in the state media from January onward, defining the ideological status quo of the post-20th period. And other Xi Jinping staples, like the “Two Unshakeables” (两个毫不动摇), followed suit.
In the short term, it is not unusual to see apparent gaps with previous performance emerge. These can close as important events, such as plenary sessions or important foreign policy exchanges, drive a burst in front-page coverage.
The most crucial point to bear in mind is the extreme and persisting gap between Xi Jinping and all other members of the party’s Politburo Standing Committee (PSC). Xi maintains a commanding lead in the party’s internal messaging. We can also note that no other members of the PSC have made clear advances in terms of front-page performance.
For those asking whether or not a power struggle is underway in China, you are asking the wrong question. Of course there is struggle. This is the nature of politics under the CCP. The only real question is: What kind? As we near the next National Congress in 2027 — for which the midpoint passed in April this year — we can naturally expect various forms of jockeying and positioning. Our point is that these moves and shifts are not yet visible in the state media headlines.
We will certainly keep you posted.
