Why is there so much uncertainty around Xi Jinping’s future?
The fact that Xi Jinping hasn’t been around lately and the leadership purges have led to rumors that he might leave. He came back in June, but people are still worried that China’s rigid political system doesn’t have a plan for who will take over. As Xi gets older, the lack of institutionalized transitions is a big worry for China and the world.
Could Xi Jinping be stepping down?
Reports that Xi is ill and may resign from his three positions as China’s top leader, head of the Communist Party, president, and military, as early as August were among the rumors, which also included claims that there is internal opposition in Beijing to his rule, as per a report by WPR.Even though these reports contained factual errors and misinterpretations, they nevertheless fueled additional conjecture and attempts at similar analysis.The ambiguity of China’s political system and the absence of an established procedure for political succession are issues with worldwide ramifications, considering China’s significance to the global economy and its continuous rivalry with the US for influence and legitimacy.
Why is succession planning in China such a big concern?
Xi will be 75 when his third term concludes in 2028. Every time Xi makes an unusual public appearance, there will be conjecture about his health, his hold on power, and the process by which the next paramount leader will be chosen in a system that rejects the use of elections for such decisions.
What happened to China’s term limits on leadership?
In 2018, at the start of his second and final term, Xi ended a tentative but significant attempt to restrict China’s top leader to two five-year terms by eliminating term limits for the state presidency.
The goal of the term limits was to promote collectivist decision-making by the party leadership rather than the centralized and personalist rule that defined Mao Zedong’s tenure.
The removal of the two-term limit gave Xi the opportunity to consolidate power even more and establish an indefinite rule. He may have achieved this achievement after just five years in office, suggesting that many Communist Party leaders had become disenchanted with the two-term system. It produced lame duck status and weak leaders in the second term, according to Xi himself.
How has Xi used his power since removing term limits?
This gave Xi the authority to lead an anti-corruption campaign, punish and silence private sector businesspeople who opposed the Party, like Jack Ma and Ren Zhiqiang, and impose harsh regulations, like China’s “Zero COVID” policy.
But as Xi ages, the rumors and conjecture that currently plague his reign will only worsen. For China’s policymaking in the upcoming ten years, centralization without formalized succession planning is not encouraging.
Did past power struggles make Xi fear grooming a successor?
Xi might be concerned that any attempt to select a successor or organize a transition would spark open conflict among China’s elite, given the strife that hampered his rise to power.
There are consequences associated with China’s political system’s lack of transparency at the highest levels. Making sense of recent events and changes among China’s elite is becoming more and more challenging.
Despite more than ten years of diligent efforts, Xi’s attempt to eradicate corruption may have failed, as evidenced by the unprecedented purge of China’s top military officials since the start of his third term. But Xi’s own hand-picked men have been the focus of the recent purges.
Under Xi, these commissions have become more powerful, and many of them have assumed functions that were previously handled by government organizations. Many of them have had Xi as their chairman since 2018, which shows his concentration of power and possibly his lack of confidence in other people to lead.
FAQs
Will Xi Jinping really step down in August?
There is no official sign. He recently returned to a Politburo meeting, but rumors persist due to his absence and unusual shake-ups.
Why is there no obvious successor to Xi Jinping?
Xi removed term limits in 2018 and has yet to name a successor, raising questions about future leadership transitions in China.
