Dec. 20, 2025, 6:02 a.m. ET
For the last year, Ruby and Nathaniel Jumper have tried saving up for a cross-country move.
The couple living in Mercedes, Texas, decided in January to relocate to Tennessee for better work opportunities and a bigger apartment for their family. But bills, surprise expenses and the high cost of groceries have set them back over and over again.
“It’s been rough, honestly,” said Ruby Jumper, adding that the financial squeeze meant hard decisions this holiday season. “Usually they get three or four gifts,” she said, speaking about her three children, ages 17, 11 and 8. “This year they’re only going to get one.”
As the Jumpers stow away money when they can, they’re closely watching one idea being floated in Washington: $2,000 rebate checks.
In recent months, President Donald Trump has repeatedly previewed the idea of a tariff dividend that would hand thousands of dollars to lower- and middle-income Americans, paid for by money brought in by his global import taxes.
The idea, which comes as polls show Americans increasingly souring on Trump’s handling of the economy, faces longshot odds from bettors, logistical hurdles in Congress and angst from some economists.
Over the 2025 holiday season, USA TODAY Network journalists spoke with holiday shoppers across the country about the prospect of a tariff rebate in 2026 and what $2,000 would mean to them.
For many, the idea stirred thoughts of catching up – of paying bills, of regaining financial security they’d recently lost. Buying gifts, they said, was just another reminder that a dollar doesn’t buy what it used to.
“Prices are just exorbitant,” said Andrei Thies in Milwaukee, adding that she’s buying fewer Christmas gifts than usual for her family.
“The cost of things is just insane.”
Will Americans get $2,000 checks in 2026?
Trump has repeatedly floated the rebates as a way to put money in wallets at a time when Americans are struggling with years of cumulative inflation. But the idea, which hasn’t been fleshed out into a detailed plan, faces an uncertain future.
Multiple independent reports have concluded that the money collected in tariff revenue won’t be enough to fund sweeping rebate checks.
The nonpartisan Tax Foundation, for example, said the checks would cost the government $279.8 billion to $606.8 billion, depending on who gets them. That’s more than the $158.4 billion the tariffs will generate in 2025, the nonprofit found.
Economists have also raised concerns that the tariff dividend could contribute to a rise in inflation, as the COVID stimulus checks did. And on Capitol Hill, the idea of rebate checks have been met with lukewarm responses, even from some Republicans.
“I think it’s an idea that needs to be fleshed out,” Rep. Ryan Zinke, R-Montana, told Politico this month. “We’re $36, $37 trillion in debt. To me, I think our bus is full. If you want to add something, then take something off the bus. That’s just me.”
In a statement, White House spokesperson Kush Desai said, “The Administration is committed to putting the federal government’s historic tariff revenue to good use for the American people.”
‘I’m gonna spend less’
In downtown New Orleans, Chris Thiel’s kids brushed powdered sugar from their shirts as their parents considered their holiday shopping.
Leaving the Riverwalk Outlets mall with a few small purchases, including beignets for the kids, Thiel and his wife, Shawnell, said the cost of everything is up: “The smallest toys” that last year cost $10 are now $20, he said.
“I’m gonna spend less,” Chris Thiel, 46, added. “It’s not looking too good out here.”
Thiel is not alone. Multiple polls released in December show a large portion of U.S. adults intend to spend less on holiday shopping this year than they did last year, with many blaming the high cost of goods. Analysts and retailers are aware of this and have hung their hopes on high earners to bring in holiday sales.
“Upper-income shoppers likely will account for a disproportionate share of holiday sales and the bulk of this year’s growth from the 2024 shopping season,” said Jennifer Timmerman, senior investment strategy analyst at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, in a Black Friday analysis on Nov. 24.
Less wealthy shoppers, she said, will be hunting for discounts and leaning on buy now, pay later financing to get through the holidays.
Thiel said he’s heard rumblings about Trump’s plans for a $2,000 tariff rebate, but said he’d believe it when he sees it. He said with three kids, $2,000 would be helpful but probably wouldn’t change their lives.
Shawnell Thiel said she’s found that no matter how much money she has, the bills seem to expand right alongside.
“It’s a lot of money but it’s going right back out the door the same way it came in,” Chris Thiel said.
A hope to build back ‘depleted savings’
In Milwaukee, Laura Creswell said she doesn’t have much hope in the tariff checks, pointing to the once-floated Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) checks that never materialized.
“I think it’s another Trump TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) moment where he makes a big promise,” she said. “Like DOGE was supposed to send out checks. I don’t think it’s gonna happen.”
If she’s wrong, however, she said she would use the money to build a rainy-day fund.
“My savings are really depleted,” she said. “To have a little cushion again would be really nice.”
Many are in a similar position. A recent survey from Bankrate found that 8 in 10 Americans have not increased their emergency savings in 2025, with more than a quarter of respondents saying they have less in savings now than they did in 2024.
Creswell, who spoke with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, part of the USA TODAY Network as she was Christmas shopping, said she’s spending less on gifts this year because of the cost of groceries.
“So much of everyday living – groceries, eggs, meat – everything is just so much more expensive,” she said. “You just try and save up through the year but there’s just a lot less to go around.”
Economists and financial analysts say a combination of sticky inflation and persistently high prices at the grocery store account for much of the squeeze lower- and middle-income earners are feeling.
In 2022, inflation peaked at 9%, and food prices rose even higher, reaching a 13% increase for groceries consumed at home, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
And although inflation has since eased – dropping to 2.7% in November – American shoppers are still paying nearly 30% more for groceries compared with six years ago, according to the grocery price index from Datasembly, a data firm tracking retail pricing.
‘Back to where we were before’
Ryan McDonald and wife Samantha took off work on Wednesday, Dec. 10, to do some Christmas shopping for their daughters, ages 4 and 7.
McDonald, who lives in Voorhees, New Jersey, said holiday spending this year would be about the same as it was last year, although he has definitely noticed higher prices.
“Things are getting a bit more expensive and that’s certainly hitting us,” said McDonald, who works in healthcare.
Asked about the possibility of a tariff rebate check, he said he could use the money but wished the president never imposed import taxes in the first place.
“I’d certainly welcome a $2,000 check,” he said, “but it’s a roundabout way to get us back to where we were before.”
Lisi Hahnenberg from Atlanta, Georgia, felt similarly. Her family’s big end-of-the-year purchase was a trip to Disney World with her two daughters, ages 8 and 12. To save money on the flights, she decided to drive.
“We’re definitely more aware of what we’re spending,” said 46-year-old Hahnenberg.
A tariff rebate of $2,000 wouldn’t make that much of a difference, she added.
‘It would really help’
At a Goodwill store near downtown Indianapolis, Jervae Jamison said she could use the tariff rebate to finally put a down payment toward a vehicle.
“I really need a car,” she said, “so it would help.”
Jamison had one major reservation about the tariff dividend: A possible tax implication.
Some who have studied the proposed dividend checks, including the Budget Lab at Yale, have assumed that they would take the form of tax credits, which would mean no tax. The question won’t get a firm answer until there’s legislation on the matter.
Like Jamison, Brooke Thornell said she’s done much of her shopping this year at thrift stores and second hand shops to save money.
The Jacksonville, Florida, native said she doesn’t think the rebate will happen, but if it did, she’d use it to pay down debt, she said.
“I’d probably put it toward my student loans or save it,” she said. “It would be nice, but I don’t expect anything from this administration.”
‘More thought into gifts’
In New York City, Jamien Medina, 43, said he could use the money to soften the blow of a recent job loss.
USA TODAY spoke with him as he was on the Staten Island Ferry heading into Manhattan. At the time, he was contemplating what presents he would be able to afford.
“I’m putting more thought into a gift this year,” he said, noting that toys and clothes seem to have become more expensive.
Speaking about the possible tariff dividend, Medina said he would try to save half of it as he looked for a new job. The other half he’d use on food.
In Wisconsin, Thies said she would put the tariff rebate into savings or maybe use it to take a trip with her family.
“Two-thousands dollars doesn’t go as far as it used to,” she said.
Contributing: Betty Lin-Fisher, USA TODAY; Hannah Schroeder, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel; Alexandria Mansfield, Florida Times-Union
