It’s going to take more than a reciprocal tariff pause to keep Wall Street’s biggest bear from roaming the markets and heading into hibernation.
“Based on my calculations, the tariff rate is still quite high — at least as high as anything we have seen since the 1930s,” BCA Research chief strategist Peter Berezin told Yahoo Finance. “There is no guarantee these so-called reciprocal tariffs are going to come down. The fact of the matter is that most countries don’t have very large trade barriers with the US.”
Berezin added, “The uncertainty is a problem — I think we are still headed into a recession, unfortunately.”
Berezin told Yahoo Finance recently he sees a 75% chance of a US recession this year and the S&P 500 dropping 15% to 4,450. He hasn’t ruled out the US already being in a mild recession.
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Berezin gained attention for being the lone bear on Wall Street coming into 2025. Further, he correctly called in 2022 that there would be no US recession — despite most on the Street bracing for one. He has been an economist for more than 30 years, with stints at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Goldman Sachs, and now BCA Research.
The bearish calls on markets and the economy come amid another turbulent week for stocks as some traders aimed to price in a recession while others took a more optimistic viewpoint.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) on Thursday tanked 1,014.79 points or 2.5%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) sold off to the tune of 3.46% and 4.31%, respectively. Investor favorites Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) plunged 6% and 7.3%, respectively.
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Markets essentially dialed back their excitement after a historic day on Wednesday.
The S&P 500 exploded 9.5% on Wednesday as President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries. He cranked up the pressure on China, however, taking tariffs up to 145%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 12% for its second-best day on record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shot up 7.8%, or about 3,000 points.
As of 10:18:51 AM EDT. Market Open.
^GSPC ^IXIC ^DJI
The about-face on tariffs caused Goldman Sachs economists to reverse their baseline recession call … made earlier that day.
Stocks were solidly in the red on Friday.
Despite the elevated market volatility, some Wall Street strategists are aiming to search the rubble for buying opportunities. Most calls reviewed by Yahoo Finance focus on defensive stock tilts rather than buying recent dips on former highfliers in Apple (AAPL), Nvidia, and Tesla.
