Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Market moves : Stocks were falling to close out the week, but the S & P 500 was still tracking for a small weekly gain. Initially, the S & P 500 climbed to a fresh record high in response to the weak August jobs report. At first, the market viewed the data as a classic “bad news is good news” move — the soft job gains and higher unemployment rate made traders think the Federal Reserve may have to cut rates more aggressively into year-end. Accordingly, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4.1%, driving interest rate-sensitive stocks tied to real estate and housing higher. Mortgage rates plummeted, too. The average 30-year fixed rate fell 16 basis points to 6.29%, marking the steepest one-day drop since August 2024. Mortgages comfortably under 6.5% are huge for Home Depot because that’s the level where housing activity tends to pick up. While the drop in bond yields stuck, the stock market’s gains quickly faded, and the soft economic data caused weakness in banks, consumer travel and leisure, industrials, and high-multiple, momentum-based stocks like Palantir and portfolio name GE Vernova . Odds changes: Fed interest rate cut expectations surged in response to the weak jobs data. As of late Friday afternoon, the chances of a 25 basis point cut at the conclusion of the central bank’s September 16-17 meeting were 100%, according to CME FedWatch. Within those odds was a 10% probability of a 50 basis point cut. At year-end, the odds of three rate cuts, or a total of 75 basis points of easing, increased to about 64%. For perspective, the probability of three cuts was 46% on Thursday and 40% one week ago. Next week: There are no companies in the portfolio scheduled to report earnings next week. Some of the notable reports are Oracle , Synopsys , Kroger , Adobe , and Chewy . Also, the Fed is in its external communications blackout period ahead of its September meeting, so we won’t be hearing from any Fed heads on Friday’s weak jobs report and next week’s consumer and wholesale inflation readings. One event we will be focused on is Apple ‘s fall hardware event on Tuesday. The company is expected to announce its iPhone 17 lineup, which may include a slimmed-down “Air” version of its flagship device. Pricing will also be of importance to investors. There are also a bunch of sell-side analyst conferences where companies will provide intra-quarter updates. Perhaps the most notable one is Morgan Stanley’s Laguna conference — featuring as its website says , “Industrials, Machinery, Aerospace & Defense, Airlines, Freight Transportation, Autos & Suppliers, and Materials companies.” (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Why the stock market reversed lower Friday — plus, the latest Fed rate cut odds
