This isn’t the market reaction many expected. The U.S. this weekend entered the Iran-Israel war, directly attacking Iranian nuclear sites. President Donald Trump after the attack said there “will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days.” Investors trudged into Sunday’s futures open expecting a sharp jump in oil prices and a steep decline in equities. That’s not what happened. After an initial decline, stock futures were marginally higher on Monday morning, while crude oil futures at one point were lower after trading up a few percent overnight. “Investors aren’t terribly panicked about an oil market calamity, an equanimous view that’s appropriate at this point,” wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge. “Geopolitical risks are undoubtably elevated in the Middle East right now, but our view remains that the extreme asymmetry of the conflict (with Iran’s military capabilities, and those of its proxy partners, significantly degraded), coupled with Tehran’s relative isolation (with few, if any, allies willing to come to its assistance) and ample global oil supplies, will help keep the fallout contained.” @SP.1 5D mountain S & P 500 futures 5-day chart Indeed, while Iran has warned it will retaliate against the U.S. for its attacks, many see few options for the Islamic Republic. One of those is closing the Strait of Hormuz , a major shipping route for roughly 20% of the world’s oil. However, that could alienate Tehran’s allies. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also urged China — the leading buyer of Iranian oil — to dissuade Iran from blocking the strait. Were Iran move to block the strait, “it will be another terrible mistake. It’s economic suicide for them if they do it,” Rubio told Fox News on Sunday. “The next move is up to the Iranians,” wrote Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. “Our bet is that they will sue for peace. If that’s the case, then the price of oil should fall and stock markets around the world should resume their ascents.” U.S. crude oil briefly spiked to its highest level since January on Sunday night, but by Monday morning was only fractionally higher. “The key question is whether Iran now retaliates vs. U.S. interests in the region, triggering a massive U.S. response,” Alpine Macro chief U.S. strategist David Abramson wrote. “Such a miscalculation by Tehran is possible – even likely. Either way, spikes in oil prices and risk-off market moves are possible, but are likely to fade quickly, given Iran is very ill-poised to win its conflict, especially if the U.S. intervenes again.”
Why markets aren’t selling off, even after U.S. attack on Iran
