Topline
The growing election betting platform Polymarket confirmed to several news outlets one person based in France is behind many of the recent wagers placed on former President Donald Trump returning to the oval office, putting to rest speculation about whether the “whale” placing multimillion-dollar bets on the election was illegally doing so stateside.
A Polymarket advertisement in New York in July.
Key Facts
Those four accounts – Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie – have a combined $28.6 million on Trump election bets, according to CNBC, making up four of the five largest holders of Trump victory shares.
That makes up more than 1% of the $2.4 billion wagered on Polymarket’s $2.4 billion presidential election winner market.
The big Trump backer is someone with “extensive trading experience and a financial services background,” a Polymarket spokesperson told Bloomberg, adding the trader “is taking a directional position based on personal views of the election.”
The blockchain-based platform “has not identified any information to suggest that this user manipulated, or attempted to manipulate, the market,” the spokesperson added.
Assisting Polymarket in the probe was corporate investigations firm Nardello & Company, according to the New York Times, which first reported the identity of the Trump whale.
Surprising Fact
It’s illegal for Americans to place bets on Polymarket, unlike competitor platforms like Kalshi and PredictIt, the latter of which sets just an $850 limit per user on each betting market. Polymarket’s probe into the origin of the user was first reported Tuesday, while blockchain experts identified the big Trump bets as likely stemming from a single person. The identity of the user behind the wagers garnered significant social media speculation.
Big Number
63%. That’s Trump’s implied odds of victory on Polymarket, favoring Trump more strongly than poll-based prediction models like FiveThirtyEight’s, which gives Trump a 52% probability of winning a second presidency.
Key Background
Election betting markets have become a notable talking point this election season. Trump called out the “new phenomenon” of Polymarket at a campaign event last week, saying he doesn’t “know what the hell it means, but it means we’re doing pretty well.” Trump is not alone in confusion about what the election betting odds actually indicate; Polymarket’s 63% to 37% odds of victory for Trump compared to Vice President Kamala Harris don’t indicate a 25-point polling lead, but rather that the betting market prices in a Trump victory in 63 out of 100 hypothetical elections. National polls put Harris and Trump neck and neck two weeks from Election Day.
Crucial Quote
“Unfortunately, this fundamental misunderstanding is responsible for much of the misinformation about Polymarket and other prediction market platforms,” a Polymarket spokesperson emphasized in a statement to CNBC.
