The S & P 500 is less than 3% from its record high set in February, and only a recession could knock it back down, according to Ned Davis Research. “A new low would likely require a recession call,” wrote chief macro strategist strategist Joe Kalish. “The economy is not currently in [a] recession and we do not foresee one in the second half of the year.” Despite higher tariffs and a brewing conflict in the Middle East, the U.S. economy has remained on solid ground. The Labor Department said earlier this month that 139,000 jobs were added in May , more than expected. Kalish also pointed out that U.S. industrial production is just 0.5% away from reaching an all-time high. The S & P 500 hasn’t entered bear market territory, but it came close at the height of the global trade scare. On a closing basis, the benchmark fell as much as 18.9% from its all-time high. .SPX 3M mountain SPX in past 3 months “The failure of the stock market to generate a bear market may be important because the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy,” Kalish said. To be sure, some cracks have emerged in the economy . Housing starts fell more than expected in May along with retail sales . On top of that, the conflict between Israel and Iran could dampen investor sentiment if the U.S. intervenes. Elsewhere Friday morning on Wall Street, Wells Fargo upgraded Mondelez to overweight from equal weight. “We view MDLZ as one of the best execution stories in Staples, with potential to deliver superior long-term growth, driven by share gains in developed market, white space opportunities in developing markets, and a proactive M & A strategy,” analyst Chris Carey wrote. “While the company is confronting historical inflation in 2025, 1) pricing execution has been strong, 2) inflation looks likely to temper in 2026, and we see a recovery of earnings ahead.”
What it will take for stocks to make a new bear market low
