We will cut net migration ‘significantly’

There should be a “realistic” cap on immigration numbers, the shadow crime and policing minister said.

Speaking to Times Radio ahead of Sir Keir Starmer’s announcement, Matt Vickers said: “We’re saying today there definitely should be a line. Parliament should be accountable for it.

“They should look at what the needs of our economy (are), they should look at how many people are coming in, what we should set as a realistic target, we should be getting on with that job.

When asked what the number should be, the Conservative MP replied: “Well, it depends where we are by the next election as to what we’ll set.”

• Reform promises to do ‘everything it can’ to close migrant hotels

Analysis by Chris Smyth

Like all prime ministers, Sir Keir Starmer sought to present his immigration plan as a win-win: lowering numbers will repair the social fabric, create jobs for British workers and force companies to train up the long-term sick.

In reality, trade-offs loom very large. While it is no doubt true that immigration is not an unqualified economic benefit, some sectors with acute shortages will be hit hard. Making social care workers train more British workers, for example, will put up fees for older people and councils. Will qualify suffer or taxes rise to pay higher wages?

Will cutting migration threaten the government’s ambitious housebuilding targets?

ALAMY

Builders say Labour’s plans to build 1.5 million homes and 150 infrastructure projects will rely on filling key skills gaps from abroad. Will the prime minister accept delays on a key plank of his plan for growth?

Boosting training and requiring firm to reach out to those Britons who struggle to work may ultimately be good for the long-term sick and the benefits bill. But it will also be a hit to companies already struggling to adapt to a national insurance rise and higher minimum wage. Will the economy endure another short-term hit to growth?

Many voters may conclude all these trade-offs will ultimately be worth it. But Starmer cannot pretend they don’t exist.

Analysis by Chris Smyth

A glaring omission from Starmer’s immigration crackdown is already being used by opponents on the right to discredit it: the lack of a firm cap on numbers.

The prime minister dismissed the need for a binding number, saying — fairly — that repeated Tory targets had all failed. “Going down the failed route is not a sensible way for me”, Starmer argued, saying he preferred “serious, pragmatic” reforms.

Politically, avoiding setting a target you are likely to miss, or one that would be dismissed as far too unambitious, makes sense. But it also invites immediate scepticism from Reform-inclined voters about whether Labour really means it.

On this, as on so much else, Starmer’s argument is that the proof will be in the delivery. Voters will only believe him when they see immigration coming down. He might be right. But as with the economy and public services, it seems voters’ patience is already wearing thin. The longer it takes to see results, the bigger the improvement voters are likely to demand.

Labour’s plans for controlling immigration should be seen “in conjunction” with their work on welfare, the prime minister has said.

Asked what his message was for “the nine million inactive adults in the UK”, Sir Keir Starmer acknowledged that within that figure there are people who cannot work, but said where people can get into work, “they should be supported”.

“The current system does the opposite, and so we will support them into work with a £1 billion package, the right to try and measures like that and that if you can work, you should work and I do think that this white paper should be seen in conjunction with what we’re doing on welfare.”

Removal of compulsory age verification for immigrants arriving in the UK is an “act of national self harm”, the shadow police and crime minister has said

Speaking to Times Radio, Matt Vickers said: “We’ve said … like the rest of Europe actually, we said that if you arrive in this country, you should be forced to go through, undertake, age verification using science, using technology that would scan your elbow, would scan your teeth — or whatever the latest tech is — to check how old you are so we don’t end up with 13-year-olds sat in classrooms or in social care settings with 30-year-olds.

“That’s a sensible thing.”

He added: “The Labour Party are removing that power from the British government. It’s an act of national self harm.”

The announcement focused on reducing legal migration

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Sir Keir Starmer insisted he is cracking down on illegal migration.

Today’s announcement is about legal migration, but asked about illegal migration he said: “Nobody should be getting on a small boat to cross the Channel. The last government lost control of our borders.

The way to solve the issue is “to take down the gangs”, he said, pointing to a borders bill which has been put before parliament. The Tories are voting against that, he added.

Analysis by Chris Smyth

With Sir Keir Starmer promising to go further if his current package did not bring immigration down enough, some in Westminster are already thinking of European Convention on Human Rights.

Once a fringe position in Westminster, leaving the ECHR has been creeping towards the mainstream.

But the prime minister would emphatic not only that this was unnecessary, but also that it would harm efforts to tackle immigration. Pointing to deals with other countries on co-operation and returns, he said these “would not have been possible if we had been saying at the same time we’re about to withdraw from our international obligations”.

He said it was “plain common sense” that other countries would not work Britain if they could see we “don’t comply with international law”. Delivered with passion, the line is clearly close to the heart of the former human rights lawyer.

But Starmer has already moved a long way on immigration. Whether his staunch defence of international agreements will be the next line to red line to blur is likely to become one of the big questions of his remaining time in office.

Sir Keir Starmer has been “listening and learning from Reform”, Richard Tice has said.

The deputy leader of Reform UK told the BBC’s Today programme: “There’s no target, no number that can be measured against, whereas we’ve got a clear target: net zero immigration.”

He continued: “What we actually talked about having, for example, an employer immigration tax.

“So you’ve got to encourage, motivate, and sometimes use carrot and stick for employers, to employ and train up and skill up our own British people.”

Sir Keir Starmer declined to set a target on cutting migration.

Caps have been done over the last ten years but they all failed, he said.

“As with everything I do, serious and pragmatic, looking at the things that will actually make a material difference.”

Sir Keir Starmer insisted his views on migration had been “consistent”.

Asked whether he had been on a “journey” regarding his perspective on the issue, he pointed to his conference speech three years ago when he said he made the “political argument” that taking back control is a Labour argument.

“There’s a core consistency here,” he insisted.

Sir Keir Starmer speaking in Downing Street

TOLGA AKMEN/EPA

Sir Keir Starmer insisted tackling migration would not harm growth.

He said the theory that higher immigration numbers lead to higher growth has been “tested” by the previous government and “that link doesn’t hold”.

He blamed stagnant growth on underinvestment in skills and growth, and said his plans deal with skills and training.

We will also have routes to get the best talent into this country, he added.

The prime minister said he wants net migration down “significantly” by the end of this parliament.

Asked if net migration would fall every year, Sir Keir Starmer said: “I’m promising it will fall significantly, and I do want to get it down by the end of this parliament, significantly.

“That is what this plan is intended to achieve.”

Sir Keir Starmer said without controls on immigration “we risk becoming an island of strangers, not a nation that walks forward together”.

He said the immigration system is “almost designed to permit abuse”.

It encourages some businesses to bring in lower paid workers rather than invest in our young people, he said.

It is also “sold by politicians to the British people on an entirely false premise”, he said.

If Nigel Farage is the political catalyst for Labour’s immigration crackdown, the philosophical inspiration seems to be Danish.

Labour has long been uncomfortable with any criticism of immigration. But Sir Keir Starmer is now saying he supports it not despite being a progressive leader, but because of it.

The prime minister repeatedly insisted reducing immigration was “fair” ,saying that “nations depend on rules” and that without them “we risk becoming an island of strangers”.

Such a progressive argument has been pioneered by Denmark’s Social Democrats, who argue that a cohesive society with a strong safety net cannot co-exist with mass immigration.

Mette Frederiksen, Denmark’s prime minister, argued recently: “Being a traditional Social Democratic thinker means you cannot allow everyone who wants to join your society to come. It’s impossible to have a sustainable society, especially if you are a welfare society.”

The US left is already looking closely at this line of argument and Starmer appears to have embraced it wholeheartedly.

The prime minister promised that migration will fall, but insisted it’s “not just about numbers”.

Starmer said: “We will create a system that is controlled, selective and fair. A clean break with the past. We will link access to visas directly to investment in home grown skills.”

“If we do need to do more, then mark my words we will,” he added.

“Migration is part of Britain’s national story,” the prime minister said.

He spoke of the events of last week commemorating the 80th anniversary of VE Day and the “great rebuilding” after the war.

“Migrants were part of that and make massive contribution today,” he said.

“You will never hear me denigrate that. But people should commit to integration and learning our language. And the system should distinguish between those that do and don’t. That’s fair. Britain must compete for the best talent in the world.”

Sir Keir Starmer opened his announcement on migration by promising to “take back control of our borders”.

He accused the previous Conservative government of conducting a “one nation experiment in open borders”.

The prime minister said everybody knows the “take back control” slogan and what it meant on immigration, but what followed with the previous government was “the complete opposite”.

Between 2019 and 2023 net migration quadrupled to nearly one million in 2023, which is “about the population of Birmingham”, he continued.

“That’s not control, it’s chaos.”

One of the most consequential elements of Sir Keir Starmer’s promise of a “clean break” on immigration is whether he can end a Whitehall consensus that importing foreign workers is good for the economy.

The Home Office is deeply sceptical of this argument but is now taking it head on: Yvette Cooper argued on Sunday that if it were true the past decade would have been a time of surging growth.

But the Treasury has always firmly believed that immigration makes Britain richer and means more money for public services. Along with the Office for Budget Responsibility’s conclusion that higher immigration as more money for the chancellor, the power of this argument within government has repeatedly overwhelmed years of promises to bring down numbers.

Starmer is already facing questions about whether his plan will be enough. To truly change government thinking on immigration, he will have to persuade the Treasury that it is not the economic and fiscal boon it has long assumed.

Government plans to get rid of care worker visas risks causing “significant problems” in the sector, a care home chain director has said.

Amy Clark, commercial director of a Cornwall care home chain, told the BBC’s Today programme that the measures could cause challenges because recruiting locally is “very, very difficult”.

She said even when they raise wages they do not get applicants.

Continuing to pay higher than the minimum wage is also becoming “increasingly difficult” due to government changes to national insurance and the minimum wage.

It comes after Care England’s chief executive Martin Green labelled the government’s plans “cruel”.

The general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing, professor Nicola Ranger, is also expected to tell its annual congress that the government has “no plan to grow a domestic workforce” and its plans are “pandering and scapegoating”.

• Automatic residency rights will cease to apply after five years and the time a person must have spent in the UK in order to qualify will be extended to ten years
• The wait for residency will be reduced based on a “contributions-based model”, including the consistency of tax payments or evidence of working in public services or highly skilled private sector jobs
• English language requirements will be raised across all immigration routes
• Skilled worker visas will require a university degree
• Tighter restrictions will be introduced on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages
• Care providers will no longer be able to hire workers from overseas
• Overseas citizens will require digital IDs
• The rules could be tightened up around the right to a family life for foreign offenders looking to evade deportation

The number of migrants arriving on the south coast on small boats from France continues to rise

SAMEER AL-DOUMY/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

The government’s resistance to setting a new net migration target has been criticised by Reform and the Conservatives.

The Conservatives have promised to force a vote on a binding cap. Reform have accused the government of “merely tinkering around the edges” with a plan “doomed to fail”.

Net migration rose to a record high of 906,000 in the year to June 2023.

The home secretary, Yvette Cooper, said on Sunday that she thought a target “undermined the credibility of anything that governments do … so, we’re not taking that specific target approach”.

Migrants who pay their taxes on time, volunteer in the community and work in public sector or high-skilled jobs will be prioritised for residency rights under new immigration reforms.

Sir Keir Starmer is set to unveil plans to drive down net migration in the wake of sweeping election gains by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK by making it harder for migrants to secure settlement and citizenship in the UK.

The prime minister will declare in a Downing Street press conference that indefinite leave to remain in Britain is “a privilege that must be earned, not a right”.

• Read in full: Staying in UK is a privilege not a right, Keir Starmer will tell migrants