Maersk estimates that U.S. businesses are currently paying an average 21 percent tariff relative to container load on all imports, marking a reprieve from the 54 percent average in mid-April after President Donald Trump escalated tariffs on Chinese goods to 145 percent.
According to Maersk’s container-weighted effective average tariff rate metric, the current import taxes still surpass 13 percent averages across the board in early March, when additional 10 percent tariffs on China went into effect.
With the July 9 deadline looming for U.S. trade partners to negotiate new trade deals with the U.S., the tariff average could increase again, regardless of whether agreements are completed.
For example, the U.S. and Vietnam agreed to a new trade deal that would slap a 20 percent tariff on Vietnamese imports—doubling the 10 percent baseline duty imposed on the country when President Trump rolled back his original non-China tariffs for 90 days. For goods being transshipped through the country originating from a third nation, the tariff will increase to 40 percent.
Vietnam had one of the highest “Liberation Day” tariff rates first imposed on April 2, at 46 percent, a week ahead of Trump’s 90-day reprieve. With a 20 percent tariff in place, retailers and brands importing goods from the country have more certainty, and will not have to change the cadence by which they order and book shipments.
The same cannot be said for most apparel-producing countries U.S. companies typically import from.
“Countries with reciprocal tariffs at the high end such as several Southeast Asian countries above 40 percent might see marked decline in bookings in the coming days and weeks if nothing changes,” said Lars Jensen, CEO of container shipping consultancy Vespucci Maritime, in a post on LinkedIn. “It is likely that U.S. importers will adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach if the tariffs come back into full effect just as they did the first time around.”
The back and forth on tariffs has led to some confusion regarding the level of added payment required.
In Maersk’s summer market update released Wednesday morning, the ocean carrier said most companies end up overpaying their tariff rate by 5 to 6 percent. The company attributes this to shippers’ lack of a centralized approach and overview of their customs duties.
Tariffs aren’t the only area where customs can throw companies off their game. Twenty percent of all delays at borders are caused by insufficient customs preparation, according to the World Trade Organization and supported by Maersk’s internal data. In some cases, such as the automotive sector, goods and parts can cross borders five to six times during the manufacturing process.
“Finished products today are complicated in that they are often being manufactured in several countries and cross borders several times,” said Karsten Kildahl, chief commercial officer of Maersk, in Wednesday’s update. “Optimizing border crossings is something businesses need to take a very strategic approach to when dealing with higher trade tariffs. It all starts with good supply chain planning.”
Maersk did not reveal its second quarter container demand figures in the update, but said the numbers would “reveal a high degree of volatility triggered by tariff announcements.”
In the container shipping giant’s Q1 interim report in May, Maersk forecasted 2025 global container demand to be within a wide range of a 1 percent contraction to 4 percent growth.
The conservative view reflected higher tariffs and potential lower consumer spending in the second half of the year.
“We have seen robust container demand growth in the first half of 2025. What played out was not completely unexpected, and we did see customers advance orders ahead of the tariff announcements,” Kildahl said. “This was more common among manufacturers and less among retailers, but overall we believe that the volume shipped reflects demand. We do not notice significant inventory level increases.”
Even amid the de-escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker had forecast inbound cargo volumes to remain below last year’s numbers for the summer.
According to the June 2025 Logistics Manager’s Index, inventories that have been moved into the U.S. are largely being held upstream at “middle mile” firms like wholesalers, distributors and other logistics services providers.
This is evident in the upstream-downstream split in inventory levels, where upstream respondents reported robust expansion at 66.4 in June, while downstream counterparts like retail stores had a contraction level of 44.2.
“The gulf is likely reflective of the fact that retailers are attempting to run down the large mass of inventories they brought in during the first few months of the year as they attempt to clear space for the holiday and back-to-school inventories they hope to have on shelves in the next few months,” the index said.
