Concerns about the U.S. and China trade relationship have softened, said Don Roose at U.S. Commodities.
“Trade has digested more positive news from tariffs. We will see if that will follow through,” he said.
Roose said that last week options expired, and it feels like the positivity in the market is starting to fade as it runs into tough resistance last seen in May 2024 corn.
Austin Schroeder at Price Futures Group said that last week corn futures pulled back, with back-and-forth trade, and March was down a nickel from the previous Friday.
“The delayed Friday export sales data showed 2024-25 corn bookings at 1.454 MMT during the week that concluded on Feb. 13,” Schroeder said. “That took export commitments to 47.87 MMT, which is 77% of the USDA export forecast and still ahead of the average sales pace of 74%.”
Soybeans had another choppy week.
“Last week’s export sales report pegged 2024-25 soybean bookings back up to 480,278 MT,” he said. “That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 43.736 MMT. That is still 88% of the USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, now in line with the average pace.”
When it comes to conditions in South America, Roose reported harvest is progressing in Brazil soybeans, and planting of the second crop is moving on aggressively.
Roose said the market has moved into catch-up risk management for producers as insurance rates are set for soybeans well below a year ago and corn is not much different from last year.
“The acre battle is here and it’s favoring more corn vs. soybeans,” he said.
Roose said the wheat market is dialing in on improved weather in the United States. However, there is a global supply that is fighting for demand. He noted if the Russia-Ukraine war cools down, they could get back to an improved production outlook.
