“But if Iran doesn’t respond, the cohesion of its regime,” a ruling class weighed down by corruption, public discontent and growing disillusionment with its promises of resistance, “could really be challenged,” he added.
Iran’s proxy network has also been battered by years of attrition with Israel and the U.S.
Its most important ally, Hezbollah in Lebanon, has been devastated by a series of Israeli attacks and assassinations, and had indicated it would not join the fight against Israel.
The Houthis, Hezbollah and Iraqi Shiite militias are unlikely to have much impact on Israel and the United States’ struggle with Iran. In the Palestinian enclave of Gaza, Hamas — which Iran armed and trained — has been badly weakened and its leaders have been killed.
Iran may also lack staunch support from its neighbors. Some Gulf nations, including Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, stopped short of condemning the U.S. attacks on Iran, calling instead for de-escalation.
“The rest of the region is very opposed to this war and doesn’t want it and didn’t want it, but they’re also not able to affect the outcome,” Hellyer said.
As a result, an increasingly isolated Iran has “no friends to speak of,” he said.
Cyber threats
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp’s cyber capabilities are formidable, and the U.S. considers Iran one of its four major adversaries in cyberspace along with China, North Korea, and Russia.
While Iran lacks Russia’s robust cybercrime syndicates or China’s vast teams of sophisticated digital spies, the U.S. has in recent years accused Iranians of working for the IRGC. These allegations have included the hacking of American defense companies and federal agencies as well as conducting ransomware attacks on American critical infrastructure.
Historically, Iran has at times responded to American attacks with thematically linked cyberattacks. After the U.S. and Israel deployed the Stuxnet virus in 2009 to degrade Iranian centrifuges, the IRGC attempted to remotely hack several power facilities, including the Bowman Dam in New York. After Las Vegas Sands Casino owner Sheldon Adelson called for the U.S. to bomb Tehran, Iranian hackers allegedly broke into company computers and deleted everything they could, costing the Sands an estimated more than $40 million.
If Iran conduct retaliatory cyberattacks, they would come in the wake of the Trump administration’s multiple several rounds of cuts to its top civilian cyber defense agency, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. CISA’s two former directors have both warned that the administration’s cuts make U.S. infrastructure more vulnerable to hackers.
Courtney Kube, Monica Alba and Kevin Collier contributed.
