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‘Trump’s reversals often come after stock market declines’

The scenario feels like a bad remake. On January 17, Donald Trump threatened eight European countries, including France, with an additional 10% tariff if they refused to give him what he wanted: Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark. On Wednesday, January 21, the same Trump, who had warned that morning in Davos (Switzerland) that he would not back down, ultimately reversed course. He claimed to have secured a “framework of a future deal,” the details of which were as clear as a January day in Nuuk.

The same scene had played out at the end of May 2025: Trump threatened the European Union with 50% tariffs on a Friday, only to withdraw his threats by Sunday, after a weekend spent at his New Jersey golf club. The acronym TACO, for “Trump Always Chickens Out,” quickly resurfaced. The phrase has been popularized by his opponents. It irritates the White House, which tried to promote another slogan after the kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro in central Caracas on January 3: FAFO, for “Fuck Around and Find Out.”

Both are false. The president’s supporters are quick to spin each retreat as a strategic withdrawal by the master of “the art of the deal.” His detractors forget that Trump rarely walks away empty-handed: After his back-and-forth in May 2025, he imposed an unbalanced trade agreement on Europe in July and Europe did not protest. Beyond the question of whether Trump is TACO or FAFO, it is worth noting that his reversals often occur after stock market declines combined with turmoil in the bond markets. This is indeed a bad combination.

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