Trump’s Next Trade? Long US Ag-Tech, Short China Inputs – Bunge Global (NYSE:BG), Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM)

President Donald Trump‘s latest warning to “terminate business with China having to do with cooking oil, and other elements of trade” may sound narrow, but markets know better — food is politics, and politics moves capital. By calling China’s soybean snub an “Economically Hostile Act,” investors are starting to eye a repeat of 2018’s tariff trade, where American agribusiness quietly became the unexpected winner.

• Track Soybean price moves via the SOYB here.

Ag-Tech And Fertilizers Could Be The Big Winners

Trump’s policies could accelerate what traders are calling Decoupling 2.0 — a shift toward U.S.-based food production, agricultural technology, and fertilizer independence.

That sets the stage for potential upside in Deere & Co. (NYSE:DE), whose precision-farming equipment would benefit from domestic expansion, and Corteva (NYSE:CTVA), the seed and crop protection firm already positioning for global supply diversification.

Fertilizer giants CF Industries (NYSE:CF) and Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE:NTR) could see renewed momentum if Washington incentivizes domestic inputs to offset Chinese supply risk.

Read Also: How Plug Power’s Smart Pivot Is Outsmarting Trump’s Tax Attack

Food Producers And Renewable Fuel Players Could Ride The Ripple

Although consumer-facing food producers like Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (NYSE:ADM) and Bunge Global SA (NYSE:BG) may need to adapt quickly to shifting trade routes, higher volatility in soybean and vegetable oil prices could benefit them. Renewable fuel players like Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) and Valero Energy Corp (NYSE:VLO), which use cooking oil as feedstock for renewable diesel, could see supply tightness translate into margin opportunities.

Asymmetric Trade Opportunities For Investors

For investors, the trade setup looks asymmetric. U.S. Ag-Tech and fertilizer producers stand to gain from nationalist policy tailwinds, while Chinese-linked suppliers and low-margin processors could take the hit.

As Trump puts it, “retribution” may not come through tariffs alone — but by reshaping where America grows, refines, and fuels its food economy.

If Trump’s rhetoric turns into actionable policy, the next trade war won’t be fought over semiconductors or steel — it’ll start in America’s farm belt and ripple all the way to Wall Street.

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