When President Donald Trump began rapidly deporting migrants earlier this year to a brutal Salvadoran prison – including some wrongfully so – without due process, Democrats were somewhat wary of pushing back.
Yes, the move appeared illegal and highly problematic. But didn’t Americans just want undocumented immigrants deported? By standing up for due process, didn’t Democrats risk looking like they were siding with people in the country illegally – or even alleged gang members?
Well, it turned out Americans could separate those two things in their minds. In large part because of the heavy-handedness of his deportations, Trump’s immigration agenda has suffered a series of defeats in court and fallen out of favor with the public.
Despite reducing the number of illegal border-crossings to record lows, Trump is somehow underwater on immigration polling.
We could now be seeing a similar dynamic playing out with Trump’s legally dubious strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean Sea and the Pacific Ocean.
The US military has carried out these strikes without a legal process or offering public evidence of its justifications. The administration has likened the fight against drug-traffickers to a literal war and said that allows it to use war-like powers.
Despite carrying out these strikes for more than two months and killing 80 people now, we hadn’t had a good read on public opinion – until now. And it turns out, much like with the rapid deportations, the American public has real concerns.
A new Reuters-Ipsos poll released Friday found Americans oppose such strikes by a wide margin, 51%-29%.
The question asked whether people supported “authorizing the US military to kill suspected drug traffickers outside of the US without judicial process.”
Independents opposed this 53%-22%. About twice as many Americans overall strongly opposed it (34%) as strongly supported it (15%). And even 27% of Republicans opposed it.
Those are the kinds of numbers that would seem to suggest real political danger for Trump – and might embolden Democrats or other critics to start speaking out a little more forcefully.
Despite the extraordinary nature of these strikes and major legal questions hanging over them, those critics thus far have been relatively quiet. And they certainly haven’t sought to elevate this issue to a top priority.
We do have the likes of libertarian Republican Sen. Rand Paul speaking out pretty forcefully. Paul has called the strikes “extrajudicial killings.” He and Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska voted with nearly all Senate Democrats last month to rein in Trump’s authority on the boat strikes, although the measure ultimately did not pass.
Other lawmakers have agitated for more briefings from the administration, which hasn’t publicly offered a legal justification for the strikes.
But it’s clear Democrats have decided to treat the issue somewhat gently, perhaps fearing they will look like they’re standing up for drug-traffickers.
Last week, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, Mark Warner of Virginia, even expressed confidence in the underlying intelligence. Warner suggested that, whatever other concerns people have about the strikes – and he expressed worries himself about the administration’s transparency – they shouldn’t be too concerned about them hitting innocent people.
But just days later, the Associated Press reported that some who were killed in the strikes appear to have been small-time criminals and amateurs, rather than the “narco-terrorists” the administration has said it’s targeting.
This appears very much a live issue that will keep evolving. And the survey suggests those who would raise concerns have plenty of the public behind them.
But actually, that shouldn’t be too surprising.
Over and over again, polls have suggested the American people are actually quite interested in upholding the principle of due process – the principle that says, yes, these might be criminals, but we should probably make sure of that and have some accountability. And that even goes for noncitizens.
A May Public Religion Research Institute poll showed Americans opposed the government deporting undocumented migrants to prisons in El Salvador and other countries “without allowing them to challenge their deportation in court,” 61%-37%.
A June poll from Vanderbilt University showed support for deportations dropped from 51% to 39% when you add the qualifier that it would be done “without a formal hearing before a judge in an immigration court.”
And a May Reuters-Ipsos poll showed Americans said 55%-41% that people suspected of being in the country illegally were entitled to due process. Independents agreed with that 63%-36%, and even 22% of Republicans agreed.
We’ll see if these data – and perhaps the recent election results suggesting Trump is at a low point politically – inject lawmakers with more willingness to fight this battle.
If nothing else, the downside of not speaking out more forcefully also appears to be coming into focus.
Just this week, a report from human rights groups alleged that dozens of Venezuelans who were sent to the El Salvador prison were subjected to torture and other serious abuses like sexual violence. The report also echoed previous reporting that, contrary to the administration’s claims, there is little evidence many of these migrants were the hardened criminals or gang members the administration said they were.
Given all of that, you could understand why Americans might be skeptical of not just imprisoning people without due process, but killing them.
And it seems they are.
