- Mixed markets in Europe amid weak German retail sales release.
- US markets expected to push higher amid Carney backdown.
- Trump seeks to pass his bill in a shortened 4-day week.
European markets have kicked off affairs on a somewhat indecisive tone, following a similarly mixed session in Asia overnight. This morning has seen a German focus, with disappointing retail sales seeing a surprise 1.6% decline in May. Meanwhile, a raft of relatively depressed inflation data paves the way for the national German CPI figure later in the day. All-in-all, this portrays a picture of an economy that remains in need of support. With the eurozone inflation report expected to show a marginally higher headline and core CPI figures tomorrow, the questions over whether we will soon see the ECB draw its easing to an end remain prevalent.
US markets are pushing higher in early trade, with traders expecting a positive start to a four-day week. This comes off the back of a weekend that saw Donald Trump once again utilise tariffs to his advantage, forcing Mark Carney to scrap the Canadian digital-services tax in a bid to revive trade talks. With Carney and Trump speaking on Sunday, the two agreed to push for a trade deal by July 21. The move adds fuel to a market already in rally mode—Friday saw the S&P 500 hit a fresh high, closing out a 24% rebound from April’s tariff-driven lows. Meanwhile, all eyes turn to the Senate, where Trump’s controversial “big, beautiful bill” faces a bruising final vote. With unified Democratic opposition and GOP defections over Medicaid cuts and ballooning deficits, the path to passage—and getting the bill to Trump by Friday—remains rocky.
