On “Forbes Newsroom,” Clayton Allen, U.S. Director of the Eurasia Group, discussed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s lowering his nation’s nuclear response threshold following President Joe Biden’s decision to for the first time allow Ukraine the right to attack Russia with U.S.-supplied long-range missiles. “The U.S. didn’t exactly give Ukraine free rein to do exactly what it wants,” Allen told Forbes. “Ukrainian strikes into Russian territory are heavily dependent on U.S. targeting data and intelligence-sharing. The U.S. is very tightly controlling that information and using that to exercise some moderation or some influence over what targets Ukraine is able to strike.”
Allen said Russian President Vladimir Putin subsequently signing a doctrine that lowers Russia’s threshold to utilize a nuclear response represents Moscow’s “upping its perceived aggression.”
Despite this escalation, Allen says the Eurasia Group does not believe there is presently a serious risk of nuclear exchange. “This doesn’t meaningfully change–at least for now–the likelihood that Putin uses nuclear weapons.”
That risk would increase, Allen says, were Russia to actually move forces related to nuclear deployment or begin the early steps of staging nuclear weapons.
“This was really a policy change that, I think, was intended to put Russia on a more forceful or aggressive footing.”
Watch the full interview above.
