A new report from Princeton University highlights a serious threat to America’s clean transportation future — and it could spell bad news for jobs, investments, and EV buyers nationwide.
What’s happening?
Researchers at Princeton’s ZERO Lab found that if Inflation Reduction Act tax credits and Environmental Protection Agency clean car standards are repealed, electric vehicle sales could plummet. By 2030, the report estimates EV adoption could fall nearly 40% below current projections.
Without these policies, the share of new EVs sold would shrink from 40% to just 24% by the end of the decade. The fallout wouldn’t stop there — the study also warns that up to 100% of planned EV factory expansions could be canceled, and up to 72% of battery manufacturing capacity could become redundant by 2025.
These aren’t just numbers on a spreadsheet — they represent real jobs and opportunities in communities across the U.S., as well as real, tangible means of driving down air pollution that is bad for human health and slowly but consistently traps more heat in the atmosphere. Not to mention that EVs, while more expensive upfront, save money each year on lower fuel and maintenance costs such as no oil changes.
“This is our best attempt to survey available quantitative forecasts and develop an outlook on US EV sales,” explained the study’s project leader, Jesse D. Jenkins in a statement. “The report is also the only analysis I’m aware of to date that draws the connection to US manufacturing as well.”
Why is this concerning?
These policies were designed to boost domestic production and create clean energy jobs — and they are working. Since the IRA passed in 2022, over $197 billion in EV and battery investments have been announced across 208 U.S. facilities.
Rolling back these credits could undo that progress and leave communities — many of which are already building factories and training workers — without the clean energy jobs they were promised. And while EVs help reduce harmful pollution that worsens asthma and respiratory illness, pulling back support could make it harder for families to afford these healthier, lower-maintenance vehicles.
“Killing the EV tax credit combined with the ‘promised’ tariffs would involve a level of financial destruction in the auto industry that would make the 2008 bailouts look like a minor wobble,” a viewer commented, summing up the overall sentiment.
What’s being done about it?
While federal policies are at risk, there’s still action that can be taken. Supporting EVs and home electrification through IRA incentives is one way to keep momentum going — including claiming up to $7,500 in tax credits when you buy a qualifying EV assembled in North America.
On the individual level, one can also help keep the EV industry strong by joining a community of solar programs, switching to cleaner transportation, or upgrading your home with rebates and savings that make sense for your wallet — and the planet.
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Even small steps, like biking more or sharing your support for clean energy with local officials, can help preserve the progress already underway.
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