Ukraine and Russia have agreed in principle to a limited ceasefire after the US president, Donald Trump, spoke with the countries’ leaders last week. But uncertainty remains about how or when the part-ceasefire will take effect as Ukraine and Russia prepare to send delegations to Riyadh this week for parallel talks with the US.
What have the US, Russia, and Ukraine actually agreed on so far?
The three sides offered strikingly different interpretations of the limited ceasefire pact: the White House described it as covering both energy and infrastructure, the Kremlin framed it more narrowly as focused on energy infrastructure, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed hope that it would also include railways and ports.
When is the ceasefire supposed to take effect?
There is also uncertainty on when the ceasefire was meant to go into effect.
Following Tuesday’s call with Trump, Vladimir Putin gave the impression that the limited ceasefire would take effect immediately, reportedly ordering his military to stop all strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Just hours later, Ukraine accused Russia of breaking its promises, with Zelenskyy reporting strikes on civilian infrastructure – including a hospital in Sumy. It remains unclear, however, whether Russia also targeted Ukraine’s energy facilities.
Adding to the confusion, Moscow, in turn, accused Kyiv of violating the partial ceasefire, pointing to a strike on an oil depot that occurred before Zelenskyy had officially signed on to the truce.
The US is expected to push for a firm start date for the limited ceasefire when Ukrainian and Russian delegations hold separate talks with White House officials in Riyadh on Monday.
What happens if Russia or Ukraine breaks its word?
Ukraine remains deeply sceptical of any Russian agreement, pointing to past instances where Moscow failed to honour its commitments.
Zelenskyy’s warning last month in Washington – that Russia cannot be trusted, backed by evidence of more than 25 ceasefire violations – was the initial spark that led to his dressing down by Trump and the vice-president, JD Vance.
The UK and European leaders have warned that Putin would face serious consequences if he violated a temporary ceasefire agreement. However, their leverage over Moscow remains limited – most sanctions have already been imposed, and Europe continues to struggle with supplying Ukraine with enough weapons to match Russia’s military output.
Russia, meanwhile, is likely to seize on any Ukrainian ceasefire violations – real or fabricated – as a pretext to continue its offensive and pressure Washington into cutting off military support for Kyiv.
Can a limited ceasefire lead to long-term peace?
At present, the two sides remain far apart on what would be acceptable terms for a peace treaty, with no sign that Putin has relinquished any of his maximalist aims in the war against Ukraine.
Ukraine has laid out a step-by-step plan for peace: first, a full and immediate ceasefire, followed by negotiations toward a durable peace deal underpinned by western security guarantees.
Russia, meanwhile, insists that any agreement must be comprehensive from the outset, combining a ceasefire with long-term conditions in a single package – rejecting any phased approach.
Moscow has set out several key conditions for any long-term settlement – most of which are non-starters for Kyiv and its European allies. These include a halt to all foreign military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, restrictions on the size of its armed forces, and international recognition of the four Ukrainian regions Russia illegally annexed following staged referendums in 2022.
The Kremlin has also signalled it would reject any presence of western troops in Ukraine – something Kyiv views as essential to securing lasting security guarantees.
