①Will the surge in travel demand during the New Year’s Day and Spring Festival holidays be sufficient to support a full-year profit recovery for the aviation industry in 2026? ②How do institutions view the subsequent performance of airline stocks?
Cailian Press reported on December 31 (Editor: Hu Jiarong) that most airline stocks in Hong Kong rose today. As of the time of writing, China Southern Airlines Co., Ltd. (01055.HK) was up 3.94%, Air China Limited (00753.HK) was up 2.78%, and China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited (00670.HK) was up 4.72%.
Notably, China Southern Airlines Co., Ltd. once surged over 3% during early trading, while the gains for Air China and China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited approached 3% at the same time.
On the news front, with the upcoming New Year’s Day holiday in 2026 (January 1st to 3rd), consumer travel intentions have significantly increased. Data shows that flight bookings from cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai to popular destinations like Sanya, Haikou, Kunming, Guangzhou, Changbai Mountain, and Harbin have grown substantially on a month-over-month basis. As of December 25, domestic route ticket reservations exceeded 2.71 million, marking a year-over-year increase of 35%.
According to data from Flight管家 (Flight Manager), the average economy class fare for the 2026 New Year’s Day holiday is 597 yuan, representing a 6.7% increase compared to 2025, showing a clear trend of stabilization and rebound in ticket prices.
Brokerage Viewpoints: Short-term improvement in volume and price; medium- to long-term supply optimization expected
Zhongtai Securities pointed out that the flexible leave-taking model during the New Year’s Day holiday (e.g., “3 days off + 2 days of adjusted leave”) will extend the travel cycle. Coupled with the sharp decline in crude oil prices and the appreciation of the renminbi, expectations for a recovery in both volume and pricing in the aviation sector are clear. The institution believes that the short-term investment value of the aviation sector stands out, and positive fundamental changes are likely to drive share price increases.
Guosen Securities offered a similar perspective, stating that the upcoming Spring Festival holiday will serve as the second catalyst. If ticket prices exceed expectations, it may again drive airline stock increases. In the medium to long term, due to production capacity constraints faced by aircraft manufacturers, the supply side of the aviation sector will continue to tighten, while robust growth in domestic and international demand will improve the supply-demand balance. Current passenger load factors are already at historical highs, combined with declining oil prices and the appreciation of the renminbi, offering significant earnings elasticity for airlines. In 2026, airfares are expected to stabilize and recover, with prospects for improved profitability in the industry.
Guosen Securities stated that as the domestic economy recovers and consumption rebounds further, the earnings elasticity of the aviation sector will gradually be released, making the sector valuable for long-term allocation.
Editor/Liam
