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Americans thinking of purchasing a new microwave might soon have to order a takeaway instead: 90 per cent of those imported into the US last year came from China and Beijing controls three-quarters of the global export market.
The product is one of more than 50 items with an import value above $1bn that is subject to Donald Trump’s new 125 per cent tariffs. More than three-quarters of the mobile phones, video game consoles, food processors and electric fans shipped to the US last year were produced in China.
Parents hoping to purchase toys will also have to grapple with the fallout. China made 75 per cent of the dolls, tricycles, scooters and other wheeled toys that the US imported last year.
The toymaker behind the Barbie doll, Mattel, warned that it could raise US prices to offset the impact — and that was before Trump’s latest escalation in the tit-for-tat tariff war. The California-based company, which also makes HotWheels cars and the Uno card game, said 40 per cent of their products were made in China.
The speed and scale of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs means the costs are more likely to be passed on to US consumers, according to Chad Brown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Tariffs on China were being imposed ‘‘at much higher levels, at significantly greater speed, and on a lot of new consumer products” that were not affected during Trump’s first term, Brown said.
“There is a much bigger chance of significant price increases for consumers buying these types of products today.”
Staying cool during the summer months may now prove expensive for those not already prepared: nine in 10 electric fans bought from abroad in the US last year came from China, as did 40 per cent of self-contained air conditioning units. China dominates the global export market for both.
China’s dominance of so many global exports means finding alternative manufacturers will not be easy, according to former UK trade department official Allie Renison, now at consultancy SEC Newgate.
“American and Western businesses have been shifting their supply chains out of China and to other Asian countries in recent years,” she said. “But with so many Chinese raw materials and component parts still going into the products they’re assembling, much will depend on how exacting these product-specific rules are and how US-friendly the countries are.”
She added: “The challenge is less about finding alternative suppliers, given much of south-east Asia has already been increasing its industrial goods production, and more about what kind of conditions the US will place on its agreements with those countries.”
Moving manufacturing out of China is particularly difficult for electronic products such as games consoles and mobile phones, because of their complex supply chains and the skill required to make them.
“Rapid decoupling will be quite difficult, especially for goods like smartphones where additional capacity must be created, workers trained, and alternative supply lines for inputs established,” said Jason Miller, a professor at Michigan State University’s College of Business.
For example, Apple has tried to move some of its manufacturing away from China, with a small but growing push into India. But 80 per cent of the company’s smartphone production for the US remains in China, according to technology market research company Counterpoint.
If Apple were to reserve its entire iPhone output from India for the US market, it would still only cover about half of the 50mn-plus models the company ships to America each year, according to Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan.
Overall, four in five of the smartphones and games consoles imported into the US last year were made in China. Trump has not ruled out some US companies being exempted from reciprocal tariffs — but the worry for shoppers is that other products may not be available at all.
“The greatest concern for consumers is that importers, fearing they can’t pass along tariff cost increases to consumers, discontinue imports of some goods from China,” Miller said.
Additional reporting by Jonathan Vincent