Russia and China’s influence wanes in the Middle East after 12-Day War

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While both countries have aimed to expand their influence in the Middle East, they have remained silent after the Israel-Iran War.

Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday.

The call was initiated by the French side, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday. “It was the French side’s idea,” he said.

The Russian state media’s explanation of the call was light on details about what was discussed. France and Russia both have interests in the Middle East, but it’s unclear if that was on the agenda.

Currently, there is a general lack of discussion about Russia’s policy in the Middle East. Similarly, there has been radio silence regarding China’s role in the region.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands during the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia October 24, 2024. (credit: ALEXANDER NEMENOV/POOL VIA REUTERS)

What happened to Russia and China and their Middle East policies?

Over the years, both countries have aimed to expand their influence in the Middle East. This included Russia and China both moving toward closer cooperation with Iran. Tehran and Moscow are strategic partners; Beijing and Tehran have a 25-year deal. They have also conducted joint naval drills with Iran over the past few years.

However, Iran recently fought a 12-day war with Israel, and neither China nor Russia appeared particularly interested.

Based on Russian state media headlines, Moscow appears particularly focused on Europe and Ukraine. Russia has condemned a recent Ukrainian attack on “peaceful cities” in Russia.

Moscow doesn’t seem to be hinting at any kind of peace deal with Kyiv, and doesn’t seem very interested in working with the US on an Iran deal.

Did the Israeli war on Iran reduce Russia’s influence in the region? Perhaps.

The only Russian TASS state media article focusing on the Middle East on July 2 was a piece about Israel’s operations in Syria.

“Israeli troops completed a night-time operation in Syria to apprehend a group of radicals suspected of ties with Iran,” TASS reported, citing the IDF.

“According to an announcement made by the IDF, the Israeli troops conducted a targeted operation in two border areas in southern Syria, while the decision to carry it out was made following intelligence gathered during interrogations over recent weeks.”

China in the Middle East

China also seems to have taken a break from influence peddling in the Middle East. China and Russia have both been focused on the Gulf and other countries in the region in terms of policy.

One exception to Beijing’s policy is Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s upcoming visit to Egypt.

China’s Xinhua news agency says, “China looks forward to working with all parties to consolidate the BRICS strategic partnership and hopes Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s upcoming visit to Egypt will carry forward the traditional friendship between the two countries, a foreign ministry spokesperson said Wednesday.”

The report also notes that “Premier Li will attend the 17th BRICS Summit upon invitation in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from July 5 to 8. At the invitation of the Prime Minister of Egypt, Mostafa Kamal Madbouly, Li will pay an official visit to Egypt from July 9 to 10.” BRICS is a key economic bloc that helps Iran work with non-Western countries.

Media in China noted that a spokesperson for the government “noted that China looks forward to working with all parties to consolidate the BRICS strategic partnership, making contributions to upholding multilateralism, promoting common development and improving global governance, and promoting high-quality development of the greater BRICS cooperation.”

China and Egypt have framed themselves as strategic partners.

“The bilateral relationship has flourished, political mutual trust has been deepened, and practical cooperation in various fields has yielded fruitful results. During the visit, Premier Li will have in-depth exchanges of views with Egyptian leaders on developing China-Egypt relations, deepening mutually beneficial cooperation, and issues of common concern,” the report noted.

“China looks forward to promoting the traditional friendship with Egypt through this visit, deepening mutually beneficial cooperation, and promoting China-Egypt relations toward the goal of building a community with a shared future for the new era,” the spokesperson said.

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