The latest Electoral Calculus MRP poll, published on 30 June — almost a year on from the general election — suggests that both MPs representing constituencies in the Eastleigh local government area could lose their seats to anti-immigration party Reform UK if a general election were held tomorrow.
In Eastleigh, Reform is now predicted to win 29.2 percent of the vote, overtaking the Liberal Democrats on 27.2 percent and the Conservatives on 21.5 percent. Labour are on 13.7 percent, with the Greens on 7.3 percent. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won the seat with 34.4 percent, while Reform trailed in fourth place.
In Hamble Valley, former minister and Conservative MP Paul Holmes has seen his 11-point majority from 12 months ago wiped out. Reform now leads with 28.2 percent, followed closely by the Conservatives on 27.7 percent and the Liberal Democrats on 24.1 percent. Labour stands at 12.1 percent, and the Greens at 6.8 percent. Just four points separate the top three parties.
Nationally, Electoral Calculus now predicts that Reform UK would win a parliamentary majority for the first time. Their June forecast puts the party on 362 seats, enough for a majority of 74. Labour would be reduced to 136 seats, the Liberal Democrats would win 62, and the Conservatives would fall to just 22 seats, slipping to fifth place behind both the Lib Dems and the SNP.
“Labour have reduced Reform’s lead by 1pc over the last month,” says Electoral Calculus, “but Nigel Farage’s party is still 7pc ahead of Labour. If there were a general election soon, Reform would be predicted to win it with a comfortable overall majority.”
If the prediction proves accurate, Liz Jarvis, who captured Eastleigh from the Tories last year, would become a one-term MP. In Hamble Valley, Paul Holmes could also be unseated. Although the race there is tighter, Reform leads by a single point.
Earlier polling had suggested Eastleigh was becoming a three-way marginal, but it now looks more like a two-horse race between the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK, who have picked up support largely at the expense of the Conservatives.
Nigel Farage first stood for Parliament in Eastleigh during the 1994 by-election, finishing fourth. Thirty years later, the constituency that launched his political career could help deliver him to Downing Street.
Liberal Democrat national chair and political analyst Mark Pack has published a breakdown of local by-election results since 1 May. His analysis found that when the Lib Dems and Reform UK are the top two parties, the Lib Dems win 78 percent of the time — good news for Liz Jarvis.
But Pack’s conclusions are less encouraging for Holmes. When Reform UK and the Conservatives are the top two, he found the Conservatives win zero percent of the time.
Although Reform UK has yet to win any borough council seats in Eastleigh, they placed second in several local contests in May and continue to grow their national profile but the next general election is not expected until 2029 and this latest polling is only predicting what could happen now.
