(Bloomberg) — Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn’t abandoned his broader goal of redrawing the balance of power in Europe three years after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Estonia’s foreign intelligence service warned in a yearly report.
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A temporary ceasefire in Ukraine risks giving Putin a chance to “catch his breath” before resuming his war on Ukraine in pursuit of that goal, said the report, published Wednesday. His pre-invasion demand that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization roll back from eastern Europe still stands, it added.
The Baltic nation on NATO’s eastern flank is a staunch supporter of Ukraine. Estonia, which borders Russia, has blamed Moscow’s intelligence services for a spate of acts of vandalism in recent years and ramped up defense spending.
“Putin likely views a resolution to this conflict as achievable only through a Yalta style agreement – that is, dividing Europe into spheres of influence,” the report said, referencing the meeting between US, UK and Soviet leaders to reorganize Europe’s borders and security architecture after World War II.
In order to discourage military support to Ukraine, Russia will stoke “fears of a nuclear winter” in Western societies this year, the intelligence agency said. It added that Moscow is “highly unlikely to use nuclear weapons” against Ukraine, but “observing how the fear factor has restrained the West thus far,” will exploit it to the fullest.
A spokesman for the Kremlin didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
The spy agency also warned that despite enormous troop losses and heavy Western sanctions, Russia’s military forces continue to grow, gaining experience on the battlefield and with new technologies. While the country’s economy has withstood external pressures, its momentum has slowed, impacting Moscow’s ambitious plans to ramp up military production, the report said.
The report dedicated a chapter to China, which it said “tacitly endorses” its citizens and companies doing business with Moscow. China has aided Russian drone production by facilitating the flow of Western components, according to the spy agency.
“China’s interest lies in preventing Russia from losing the war in Ukraine, as such an outcome would represent a victory for its main rival, the United States,” the report said.
(Update on response from Moscow in sixth paragraph)
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