Beleaguered Moldova is facing a daily battle to keep the lights on after Russia cut gas supplies to a critical power plant on 1 January, but whether they succeed may ultimately depend on Putin’s whims.
Moldova’s fight to keep the lights on is not just about warm homes or busy factories but about whether the country stays on its pro-EU course or falls back into Russia’s suffocating embrace.
Since New Year’s Day, Moldova’s electricity utility has been issuing daily bulletins advising Moldovans whether they can expect light and power the following day.
While Russia has cut supplies to Moldova, large flows of power from neighbouring Romania have ensured Moldova has so far avoided blackouts.
But Romania’s electricity, although a lifeline as about 60% of Moldova’s electricity comes from that country, could be cut off at any time, said Marcela Lefter, CEO of Sedera, a Romania-based company developing solar energy in Moldova.
“The interconnector bringing power from Romania goes straight to a hub in Transnistria,” Lefter told Euractiv, referring to Moldova’s breakaway region, which has strong ties with Moscow.
“The Transnistrian authorities certainly have the technical capacity to cut Moldova’s power supply if the Kremlin tells them to do it,” she also warned.
Parliamentary elections due later this year offer Putin the perfect opportunity to bring Moldova back into Moscow’s orbit as a population hit by power cuts or high energy bills is less likely to re-elect the country’s fragile pro-EU government – a risk that is far from hypothetical.
In last year’s presidential election, the population narrowly re-elected a pro-EU candidate over a Moscow-friendly alternative, and her victory was only possible thanks to votes from Moldovans abroad.
Transnistrians caught in the middle
Unlike the rest of Moldova, Transnistria never cut itself off from Russian gas. As a result, homes went without heating, factories closed, and people suffered rolling blackouts.
This may make the region think twice before carrying out any hypothetical order from Moscow to cut Moldova’s power, which is another question.
Eugeniu Buzatu, the acting director of the country’s power utility Energocom, confirmed to Euractiv that the crucial substation of the Romanian interconnector is located in Transnistria and that the authorities there can cut off Moldova’s power.
By cutting off flows from Romania, the Transnistrians would also be isolating their own power system, which “would not be very good for them”, he added.
For the Moldovan government, “Tiraspol’s refusal to accept help from Moldova is not its (own) but the Kremlin’s”, President Maia Sandu recently said, referring to Moldova’s offer of emergency aid to the breakaway region, which was rejected by leaders in the capital of Tiraspol.
But even if Transnistria refuses to cooperate, Putin has other options.
Some 20 kilometres of the Romanian power cable run through Ukraine. “The only line is crossing a war territory and could be attacked any time,” notes Leftner, adding that “the concern is very high”.
Both Leftner and Buzatu agree that while the destruction of this line would cause blackouts across Moldova, Ukrainian repair crews could likely restore service within a few days.
But if Moldovans are plunged into darkness and cold in the critical days before a tight national election, the domestic and geopolitical fallout could be permanent.
In the meantime, Moldova is left with uncertainty about its future and more questions than answers. Reflecting on the situation, Leftner admits that “for now, we still don’t know Russia’s ultimate plan”.
Additional reporting by Darius Kölsch.
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