Palladium futures have been trading in a narrow range at around $1,110 per ounce, well below the one-year high of $1,338 reached on July 23, as changing automotive trends and steady supply weigh on the market.
Demand from traditional internal combustion engines, which account for roughly 80–84% of palladium consumption, is declining due to rising electric vehicle adoption and increased substitution of cheaper platinum in catalytic converters.
Global EV sales rose 21% year-on-year in July, with China averaging 36% monthly growth in the first half of the year, though some 2025 subsidy pauses have slowed momentum.
On the supply side, output from Russia and South Africa remains stable, easing shortage concerns.
The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a market shift from a multiyear deficit to a surplus of about 200,000 ounces in 2025, as automotive demand contracts while mine and recycled supply continue steadily.
