In the final days of this year’s election, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, is “gaining ground” on the betting platform Polymarket, according to an update on Friday.
As of Friday afternoon, Harris still trailed former President Donald Trump, the GOP nominee, on Polymarket—59.5 percent to 40.6 percent. The gap, however, has closed over the past week. On October 25, the vice president was given a 36.1 percent chance of victory next week while Trump held a 63.8 percent chance.
Polymarket describes itself as the world’s largest prediction market, with investors able to place bets on the outcomes of various events using cryptocurrency. The platform is based on what it describes as “collective wisdom” rather than outside factors like polling data.
On Friday, Harris’ biggest jump in recent days was in Michigan, which flipped in her favor for the first time since October 10. At the time of publication, Harris was given a 58 percent chance of securing Michigan and its 16 electoral votes while Trump had a 42 percent chance in the key swing state.
The vice president is also ahead in Wisconsin, another critical swing state that has the potential to tip the results of the presidential race. As of Friday, Harris was given a 53 percent chance of winning while Trump had a 48 percent chance.
Trump, however, holds the lead in the remainder of the battleground states. In Pennsylvania, Trump has a 56 percent chance of victory on Polymarket while Harris has a 44 percent chance. The former president also holds better odds in Arizona (75 percent to 26 percent), North Carolina (68 percent to 32 percent), Georgia (73 percent to 29 percent) and Nevada (64 percent to 37 percent).
Newsweek has reached out to Harris and Trump’s campaigns via email Friday for comment.
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National polls show the race for the White House much tighter. According to 538, Harris leads Trump by 1.3 percentage points on average nationally. Harris is also up by a slim margin in Wisconsin (0.9 points) and Michigan (1.1 points) across statewide polling.
Trump holds a slight lead in Arizona (2.1 points), Georgia (1.6 points) and North Carolina (1.3 points) on average, according to 538’s tracking. The candidates are considered tied in Pennsylvania and Nevada across statewide polling as of Friday.
Election models run by 538 predict that Trump has a slightly higher chance of securing the necessary 270 electoral votes needed to win a second presidency, although Harris is not far behind. As of Friday, Trump holds a 52 percent chance of victory, while Harris has a 48 percent chance.
According to the latest election forecast from pollster Nate Silver, Trump has a 53.8 percent chance of winning next week, while Harris has a 45.8 percent chance. Silver also predicts that Trump has the upper hand in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, while Harris holds a slight lead in Michigan and Wisconsin.
