Eight years ago China lost a legal battle over its fantastical territorial claims in the South China Sea. An international tribunal ruled they had no basis. China responded by continuing to occupy and fortify reefs and rocks and sometimes preventing fishing and energy development by other countries. Now the confrontation is heating up as Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia challenge China’s claims and aggression in different ways. Broadly speaking, this pushback is welcome. However, it should not be reckless. America should ensure that its ally, the Philippines, treads carefully.
The encounters can be dramatic. On June 17th Chinese coastguards wielded axes as they confronted Philippine sailors resupplying a beached warship that marks the Philippines’ legitimate claim on Second Thomas Shoal. Two weeks ago China rammed a Philippine coastguard cutter on another shoal, tearing a gap in its hull. Such confrontations often go viral on social media, with images of Chinese bullies with water cannons. They also feature in Sino-American diplomatic meetings, suggesting that both sides fear they could escalate out of control.
The resistance by South-East Asian countries has been years in the making and comes in different forms. Vietnam has mimicked Chinese tactics by building up its own outposts on reclaimed land in the Spratly Islands. Malaysia’s government is generally a walkover: it allows China to patrol its fishing grounds and trade oil that is under sanctions in its waters. Still, even it is now exploring for gas off Borneo inside the “nine-dash line” which China says marks its claims.
The Philippines has been the most assertive of all. Since 2023 the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos has pivoted the country away from China. It has agreed to give America access to some military bases, in return for an upgrade of them. And it has taken a tougher line on trying to enforce its maritime borders with patrols and public statements.
All this is fair enough. But the danger for America is that encounters at sea escalate too far, and that if a military skirmish erupted, it might be obliged to defend the Philippines under their mutual-defence treaty. There is already confusion. In May Mr Marcos said that the death of a Philippine citizen in any skirmish would be “close to an act of war”, and predicted that America would “hold the same standard”. But Lloyd Austin, America’s secretary of defence, declined to endorse Mr Marcos’s declaration. It is an invidious choice for America. It does not want to risk a wider war. Yet if it failed to back an important ally, American deterrence would suffer in Asia and elsewhere and China’s illegal claims in the South China Sea would become more entrenched.
What to do? The first step is calibration and co-ordination by America and its allies, especially the Philippines. Under their treaty, America is bound to “meet the common danger” in the event of an armed attack on a Philippine public vessel. Yet that does not mean the Philippines has a licence to escalate of its own accord and expect Uncle Sam always to back it up.
This year the Philippines raised tensions by deploying a vessel to Sabina Shoal. And then, as different Philippine officials competed for influence, its navy took action near Second Thomas Shoal without informing America or Mr Marcos. That was foolhardy. Some hawkish members of America’s Congress also play an unhelpful role, urging the Philippines to take unnecessary risks on the water, without the power to back them up. Better to have careful co-ordination of where in contested waters Philippine vessels sail, public communication of this and clear American backing in advance.
A second priority is transparency. The more the world sees of China’s claims and the ugly way it tries to enforce them, the less legitimate they will seem. Most countries used to suffer in silence. Now the Philippines has led the way by publicising maritime incidents.
Other victims of aggression should follow suit. That is likely to draw a broader group of states to criticise China. Several European countries now condemn its actions in the South China Sea. Next should be the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean). Some of its members who are chummy with China, including Cambodia and Laos, have blocked it from criticising Chinese activity. Other ASEAN members should speak out anyway. It is strongly in their interest to uphold international maritime law. The South China Sea has become a riskier place. But a more predictable policy of deterrence by America and its allies, and more exposure of Chinese misbehaviour, are the best approach to try to keep the peace.
© 2024, The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. From The Economist, published under licence. The original content can be found on www.economist.com
