Days before a devastating magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck Myanmar, flattening buildings and killing thousands, a team of Chinese seismologists published a study warning of a heightened risk of such disasters in the area.
With the death toll now estimated to have passed 3,000, the seismologists have predicted the March 28 quake will not be the last such incident, with their research indicating there is currently a higher risk of catastrophic earthquakes across China and neighbouring regions.
The timing of the research, which links seismic cycles to fluctuations in the Earth’s rotation, has sparked intense debate about whether the planet’s tectonic stress fields are entering a dangerous new phase.
The peer-reviewed study, led by senior engineer Zhu Hongbin with the Beijing Earthquake Agency, was published on March 20 in the Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, an academic publication run by the China Earthquake Administration.
They analysed around 150 years of seismic data – from 1879 to the present day – to identify six major earthquake “active periods” in China and adjacent regions.
Each period correlates with shifts in the Earth’s rotational speed – measured through changes in the length of a day (LOD) – and corresponding tectonic stress realignments, according to Zhu and his colleagues.
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