For months, Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah have traded constant cross-border attacks that have killed dozens and displaced thousands of people.
Now there are fears of a full-blown war between the foes amid the fallout from a deadly rocket attack from Lebanon hit the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
Hezbollah quickly denied it was responsible for the July 27 attack that killed 12 people, including children. But Israel has vowed to retaliate against Iran-backed Hezbollah.
Experts say no side wants an all-out war in a region that has been reeling since Israel in October launched its war against Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that runs the Gaza Strip and has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and European Union.
Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy, said Israel and Hezbollah are on the brink of a major escalation.
“Though, I do think that neither side is interested in one,” he said, adding that “a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is very dangerous” for Iran.
Tehran is Hezbollah’s main ally, and the Lebanese militant group is a key member of Iran’s so-called axis of resistance, its loose network of militant groups and proxies that aid it in opposing Israel and the United States.
Hezbollah is also considered a key part of Iran’s efforts to deter Israel or Washington from going to war against Tehran.
‘Too Costly’ For Iran
Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militant groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen have carried out attacks against Israel after it launched its devastating war in Gaza, which came shortly after Hamas’s October 7 attack in Israel that killed around 1,200 people.
Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said the goal of the attacks was to “pressure Israel” and “save Hamas,” which is backed by Iran.
“This coordination has been clearly supported by Iran, but the final aim is not to expand the scope of the war but to end it,” he added. “I don’t think there is any way Iran would benefit from a war between Israel and Hezbollah.”
Azizi said Iran and its allies have become increasingly concerned about the cost of their hostilities with Israel, which has retaliated by targeting the commanders, military facilities, and financial activities of Iran-backed groups including Hezbollah.
Hezbollah is considered Iran’s leading militant partner, helping Tehran manage its network of regional state and nonstate allies.
Horowitz described the Lebanese group as “the most powerful tool in Iran’s arsenal” that in some ways may even be “more powerful than Iran itself” in deterring Israel.
If a war breaks out, Iran could be dragged in to defend its key ally, Horowitz said.
“And if Israel is already paying the price of fighting Hezbollah, Iran’s main military force, it may also be willing to take more risks vis-a-vis Iran.”
Hezbollah’s Balancing Act
Hezbollah has not usually shied away from claiming attacks on Israeli targets. But it issued a rare denial of responsibility after the attack in the Golan Heights.
Horowitz attributed the denial to the civilian death toll, but also because the victims were all members of the Druze community, an Arabic-speaking ethnic and religious minority in Lebanon, Syria, the Golan Heights, and northern Israel.
Horowitz said most members of the Druze community in the Golan Heights, which was annexed by Israel from Syria in 1981, do not see themselves as Israelis.
He added that Hezbollah is also aware that the Lebanese public does not want another costly war with Israel.
In 2006, Hezbollah’s kidnapping of Israeli border guards ignited a devastating five-week conflict with Israel that killed 1,200 Lebanese, most of them civilians.
If there was a full-blown war with Israel, “many in Lebanon may ask why Hezbollah gambled the fate of a country already on the brink, and how the killing of Druze children and teenagers helped the Palestinian cause that Hezbollah claims to defend,” Horowitz said.
What If War Breaks Out?
With tensions running high and Israel’s security cabinet on July 29 authorizing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to retaliate against Hezbollah, the prospect of a full-blown war appears to be real.
On the evening of July 30, Israel launched an air strike in Beirut that it said killed Fuad Shukr, one of Hezbollah’s leading military figures since it was founded in the 1980s. Hours later, Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed on a visit to Tehran. While Israel has not claimed responsibility for the strike against Haniyeh, Iran explicitly blamed its archfoe.
Prior to the two killings, Azizi said Iran and its regional allies were “prepared for another phase of significant but incremental escalation against Israel.”
But he said whether Iran gets directly involved could depend on how a potential war between Israel and Hezbollah plays out.
If war broke out, members of the axis of resistance would likely intensify their attacks against Israel while also targeting U.S. troops and bases in the region in a bid to pressure Washington to rein in Israel, Azizi said.
He added that Hezbollah could defend itself and possibly respond if Israel limits its offensive to an aerial assault. But given that Israeli attacks have depleted its command in recent months, the Lebanese group could struggle to fend off a ground offensive, he said.
In that case, the overseas arm of the Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the Quds Force, could put boots on the ground to help Hezbollah, Azizi said.
If the threat to Hezbollah grew, he added, Tehran could decide to directly target Israel as it did in April, when it launched an unprecedented direct air attack against its archenemy.
Horowitz said while direct Iranian involvement would be possible if Hezbollah sustained critical damage, Iran will still try to steer clear of exposing itself directly.
“After all, Hezbollah’s role [in Iran’s view] is to defend Tehran — not the opposite,” he said.
