Party leaders Rhun ap Iorwerth and Nigel Farage both campaigned there on Thursday.
The by-election comes six months before the 2026 Senedd election and will be seen as one indication of what might potentially happen next May.
One Labour source described the expected defeat in Caerphilly as a “defeat for Starmerism, not for First Minister Eluned Morgan”, with Morgan having been relatively popular on the doorsteps.
But the source warned that the first minister needed to “assert herself” and differentiate Welsh Labour as much as possible from the UK party in the run-up to next May’s poll.
Labour Senedd members are expected to hold a meeting on Friday morning.
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