TOKYO—Among the questions facing ruling-party members who will choose Japan’s likely next leader is who will get along best with President Trump.
Would it be Sanae Takaichi, a conservative and adherent of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s expansive economic policies? Or Shinjiro Koizumi, a moderate but inexperienced member of a new generation of Japanese politicians who has the kind of energy and polish that Trump often likes?
Neither has formally declared their candidacy, but the pair are widely seen by analysts and lawmakers as the front-runners in a coming poll to select a new Liberal Democratic Party president. Whoever wins would need to be installed as Japan’s next prime minister by a vote in parliament.
The current LDP president and prime minister of Japan, Shigeru Ishiba, announced his resignation on Sunday, pressured by lawmakers who blamed him for a run of election defeats. Trump on Sunday called Ishiba “a very nice man” and said he was surprised at his decision to step down.
In choosing its next leader, Japan’s LDP is confronting a dilemma familiar to establishment parties in many Western democracies: Opt for a right-wing candidate who can bring disillusioned conservative voters back into the fold, or choose a more center-of-the-road leader who might be able to extend appeal in other directions.
Takaichi, who once dreamed of becoming a rock musician, is the figure who many in Abe’s old faction within the LDP believe has a shot at winning back right-leaning voters. Upstart groups such as Sanseito have siphoned away some of those voters with promises to curb inflation and immigration.
Takaichi is viewed as pro-U.S. and hawkish on China. Like Abe, she has prayed at the Yasukuni Shrine, an act that often angers other Asian governments because of the Tokyo war memorial’s association with the militaristic emperor cult that drove Japan into World War II.
In a global economy beset by worries over government debt, she is a rare supporter of the idea that debt and deficits don’t matter as long as inflation is under control and that Japan’s economy can be revived with more government spending, low interest rates and regulatory overhauls, a continuation of the “Abenomics” prescribed by her mentor.
If Takaichi, 64 years old, won the LDP leadership and persuaded Japan’s divided parliament to back her as prime minister, she would become the first woman to hold that office in Japan’s history.
Koizumi is seen as a moderate in LDP circles, though his experience in government is limited. At 44 and less polarizing than Takaichi, he might prove attractive to lawmakers looking to dispel the perception that the LDP is aging and out of touch.
Koizumi, who says he enjoys surfing, has presented himself as a politician for a new generation, once saying that combating climate change needs to be “sexy.” In Ishiba’s cabinet, he was put in charge of bringing down rice prices, which he did with some success by releasing tons of the staple from government stockpiles.
Koizumi inherits a certain stylistic flair from his father, Junichiro, who was prime minister from 2001 to 2006 and was known for his flowing hair and stunts such as singing “Love Me Tender” on a visit to Elvis Presley’s home in Tennessee alongside then-President George W. Bush.
Both contenders have come close to the leadership before. Takaichi was runner-up in the September 2024 poll that handed Ishiba the top job. Koizumi finished third.
Shinjiro Koizumi is a moderate but inexperienced member of a new generation of Japanese politicians.
Analysts say Takaichi is probably closer to Trump ideologically, and her closeness to Abe would be a plus, given Trump’s fondness for his former golf buddy and ally. Still, Koizumi brings relative youth, energy and a touch of glamour—his wife is a half-French, half-Japanese TV presenter—all of which Trump values, too.
Managing the U.S. relationship requires skill. Relations with Washington are broadly good, analysts and officials say, but have been strained by Trump’s tariffs and American calls for Japan and other allies to spend more on defense. Exactly how, when and where to spend a promised $550 billion in Japanese investment in the U.S., and the possibility of further tariffs on U.S. imports of semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, are potential future flashpoints.
Other possible candidates for the leadership include Yoshimasa Hayashi, chief cabinet secretary, and Takayuki Kobayashi, a former economic security minister nicknamed “Kobahawk.”
Toshimitsu Motegi, a former foreign minister, is the only candidate to formally declare he plans to stand in the election. He has a potential edge in terms of U.S. relations: Motegi has actual experience working with Trump, handling trade talks with the U.S. during Trump’s first term in office.
Paul Nadeau, an associate professor in international affairs at Temple University in Tokyo, said the real challenge for the next leader will be governing effectively. The LDP is riven by divisions and lacks a parliamentary majority, meaning it will have to lean on smaller parties to get its program through.
“In terms of getting stuff done, it depends on who has the greatest political capital,” he said. “At the end of the day, you need to deliver.”
Write to Jason Douglas at jason.douglas@wsj.com
